Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 72%
$16.9K
$-8.2K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 54 top traders (70%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.5K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$119.8 | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$139.47 | 46% 432-516 (948) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.7¢ | $611.23 | $683.34 | +$72.11 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $441.92 | $458.72 | +$16.81 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
AL almach | Downavg 90¢ | $371.86 | $401.85 | +$30 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 92¢ | $343.8 | $338 | -$5.8 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 68¢ | $231.02 | $337.65 | +$106.63 | 51% 481-466 (947) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.1¢ | $272.47 | $275.98 | +$3.51 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 87¢ | $200.9 | $219.99 | +$19.09 | 36% 467-841 (1308) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $201.55 | $203.59 | +$2.04 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 80.3¢ | $143.33 | $176 | +$32.67 | 53% 509-456 (965) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 84.5¢ | $167.51 | $151.86 | -$15.65 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85.8¢ | $156.56 | $154.76 | -$1.8 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 95.9¢ | $146.2 | $152.47 | +$6.27 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $125.44 | $143.61 | +$18.17 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $115.14 | — | -$115.14 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $68.17 | $130.58 | +$62.41 | 50% 464-455 (919) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Upavg 45.3¢ | $105.16 | — | -$105.16 | 45% 416-512 (928) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $65.01 | $60.38 | -$4.63 | 60% 595-393 (988) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $48 | $60 | +$12 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $43.99 | $62.84 | +$18.85 | 48% 442-478 (920) |
Invested
$8,598
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$119.8
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$139.47
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
machinelearnedInvested
$611.23
Value
$683.34
PnL
+$72.11
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$441.92
Value
$458.72
PnL
+$16.81
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$371.86
Value
$401.85
PnL
+$30
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$343.8
Value
$338
PnL
-$5.8
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$231.02
Value
$337.65
PnL
+$106.63
Record
51%
481-466 (947)
Invested
$272.47
Value
$275.98
PnL
+$3.51
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$200.9
Value
$219.99
PnL
+$19.09
Record
36%
467-841 (1308)
Invested
$201.55
Value
$203.59
PnL
+$2.04
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$143.33
Value
$176
PnL
+$32.67
Record
53%
509-456 (965)
Invested
$167.51
Value
$151.86
PnL
-$15.65
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$156.56
Value
$154.76
PnL
-$1.8
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$146.2
Value
$152.47
PnL
+$6.27
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$125.44
Value
$143.61
PnL
+$18.17
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Invested
$115.14
Value
—
PnL
-$115.14
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$68.17
Value
$130.58
PnL
+$62.41
Record
50%
464-455 (919)
Invested
$105.16
Value
—
PnL
-$105.16
Record
45%
416-512 (928)
Invested
$65.01
Value
$60.38
PnL
-$4.63
Record
60%
595-393 (988)
Invested
$48
Value
$60
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$43.99
Value
$62.84
PnL
+$18.85
Record
48%
442-478 (920)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machinelearned
Down — $683.34
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
Down — $458.72
almach
Down — $401.85
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Down — $338