Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Up 64%
3 arb excluded
$27.5K
$-7.0K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 61 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.6K | -$314.73 | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$11.8 | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 82.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$89 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$266.45 | 55% 225-186 (411) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.4¢ | $752.92 | $1.6K | +$870.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.8¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 53.7¢ | $825.94 | $828.06 | +$7.11 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 43.3¢ | $662.81 | $806.83 | +$144.01 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 55.3¢ | $554.76 | $697.5 | +$145.82 | 53% 509-456 (965) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 35.2¢ | $2.8K | $662.75 | +$752.66 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 54.8¢ | $478.81 | $561.47 | +$85.36 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 51.5¢ | $379.3 | $524.47 | +$147.81 | 52% 563-518 (1081) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $461.29 | $499.48 | +$38.19 | 48% 442-478 (920) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61¢ | $478.47 | $463.26 | -$15.21 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 82.6¢ | $459.55 | $437.31 | -$22.23 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 57.3¢ | $622.62 | — | -$622.62 | 56% 543-425 (968) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 64.1¢ | $527.97 | $415.48 | -$36.16 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 67.4¢ | $1.2K | — | -$930.65 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $386.08 | $407.39 | +$21.31 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 60.5¢ | $283.18 | $392.65 | +$123.12 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $380.02 | $374.7 | -$4.45 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Downavg 66.9¢ | $343.81 | — | -$343.81 | 51% 481-466 (947) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $197.67 | $304.73 | +$107.07 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 53¢ | $278.48 | $300.79 | +$23.08 | 53% 4211-3679 (7890) |
Invested
$8,849.12
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$314.73
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$11.8
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$2,521.68
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$89
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$1,890.18
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$266.45
Record
55%
225-186 (411)
Both legs:
Invested
$825.94
Value
$828.06
PnL
+$7.11
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$662.81
Value
$806.83
PnL
+$144.01
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$554.76
Value
$697.5
PnL
+$145.82
Record
53%
509-456 (965)
Invested
$2,771.09
Value
$662.75
PnL
+$752.66
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$478.81
Value
$561.47
PnL
+$85.36
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$379.3
Value
$524.47
PnL
+$147.81
Record
52%
563-518 (1081)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$461.29
Value
$499.48
PnL
+$38.19
Record
48%
442-478 (920)
Invested
$478.47
Value
$463.26
PnL
-$15.21
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$459.55
Value
$437.31
PnL
-$22.23
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$622.62
Value
—
PnL
-$622.62
Record
56%
543-425 (968)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$527.97
Value
$415.48
PnL
-$36.16
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$1,164.36
Value
—
PnL
-$930.65
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$386.08
Value
$407.39
PnL
+$21.31
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$283.18
Value
$392.65
PnL
+$123.12
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Invested
$380.02
Value
$374.7
PnL
-$4.45
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$343.81
Value
—
PnL
-$343.81
Record
51%
481-466 (947)
Invested
$197.67
Value
$304.73
PnL
+$107.07
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
FairValueMachineInvested
$278.48
Value
$300.79
PnL
+$23.08
Record
53%
4211-3679 (7890)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.6K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $2.6K
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $828.06
blue.birds
Up — $806.83
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $697.5
uninformedfloww
Up — $662.75
GoodFallen
Up — $561.47