Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

-$301.95

Smart Money Signal

32 of 56 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares25,105

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down24 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,075

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.8K	+$234.93	56% 129-102 (231)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$67.82	— 0-2 (2)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$164.76	46% 432-516 (948)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 88.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$33.77	60% 623-421 (1044)
MO mo-money	Upavg 87.2¢	$903.98	$980.22	+$76.24	47% 787-874 (1661)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 36.5¢	$472.43	$688.95	+$216.52	46% 610-705 (1315)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 36.8¢	$516.81	—	-$516.81	42% 429-598 (1027)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 88.4¢	$533.58	$531.57	-$2.01	49% 486-498 (984)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 45.3¢	$504.91	—	-$504.91	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	-$0	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	-$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 45.3¢	$399.24	$460.23	+$60.99	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
AL almach	Upavg 88.8¢	$465.58	$460.42	-$5.16	48% 784-859 (1643)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 52.6¢	$311.93	$437.99	+$126.06	50% 467-464 (931)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 51¢	$302.68	$379.56	+$104.17	43% 458-609 (1067)
ST stepahead	Upavg 60.8¢	$284.91	$301.4	+$16.49	55% 3891-3247 (7138)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 61¢	$293.06	$279.97	-$13.1	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 57¢	$233.02	$274.77	+$64	36% 467-841 (1308)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 49.7¢	$108.6	$216.28	+$107.68	53% 4211-3679 (7890)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 54.9¢	$160.97	$206.08	+$45.29	53% 509-456 (965)
machinelearned	Upavg 84.1¢	$233.43	$202.28	-$31.16	42% 672-911 (1583)
BO bosona	Upavg 86.7¢	$177.74	$205.08	+$27.34	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 56.5¢	$107.58	$184.47	+$76.89	51% 481-466 (947)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$166.87	$159.94	-$6.93	45% 416-512 (928)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$71.04	$159.94	+$88.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$95.83	—	-$95.83
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 54.8¢	$78.12	$125.46	+$47.34	56% 543-425 (968)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,991

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$234.93

Record

56%

129-102 (231)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$67.82

Record

—

0-2 (2)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$164.76

Record

46%

432-516 (948)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,802.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$33.77

Record

60%

623-421 (1044)

mo-money

Invested

$903.98

Value

$980.22

PnL

+$76.24

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$472.43

Value

$688.95

PnL

+$216.52

Record

46%

610-705 (1315)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$516.81

Value

—

PnL

-$516.81

Record

42%

429-598 (1027)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$533.58

Value

$531.57

PnL

-$2.01

Record

49%

486-498 (984)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$504.91

Value

—

PnL

-$504.91

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$250

Down$25050¢-$250

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$250

Down$25050¢-$250

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$399.24

Value

$460.23

PnL

+$60.99

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

almach

Invested

$465.58

Value

$460.42

PnL

-$5.16

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$311.93

Value

$437.99

PnL

+$126.06

Record

50%

467-464 (931)

GoodFallen

Invested

$302.68

Value

$379.56

PnL

+$104.17

Record

43%

458-609 (1067)

stepahead

Invested

$284.91

Value

$301.4

PnL

+$16.49

Record

55%

3891-3247 (7138)

blue.birds

Invested

$293.06

Value

$279.97

PnL

-$13.1

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$233.02

Value

$274.77

PnL

+$64

Record

36%

467-841 (1308)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$108.6

Value

$216.28

PnL

+$107.68

Record

53%

4211-3679 (7890)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$160.97

Value

$206.08

PnL

+$45.29

Record

53%

509-456 (965)

machinelearned

Invested

$233.43

Value

$202.28

PnL

-$31.16

Record

42%

672-911 (1583)

bosona

Invested

$177.74

Value

$205.08

PnL

+$27.34

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$107.58

Value

$184.47

PnL

+$76.89

Record

51%

481-466 (947)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.87

Value

$159.94

PnL

-$6.93

Record

45%

416-512 (928)

Both legs:

Up$71.0444.4¢+$88.91

Down$95.8372.6¢-$95.83

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$78.12

Value

$125.46

PnL

+$47.34

Record

56%

543-425 (968)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 56 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a2696ee...038abf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794490800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.8K

+$234.93

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$67.82

machine-earning

Up — $3.9K

+$164.76

Bonereaper

Up — $1.8K

-$33.77

mo-money

Up — $980.22

+$76.24

CrouchPredictions

Up — $688.95

+$216.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

-$516.81

EZTRADENL2

Up — $531.57

-$2.01

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

QuantumPebble673

Arbitrage — excluded