Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Down 63%
$14.7K
$-9.6K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 61 top traders (62%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.3K | +$95.12 | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.9K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.1¢ | $716.24 | $864.48 | +$155.94 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 38.3¢ | $572.96 | — | -$572.96 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.1¢ | $515.32 | $469.7 | -$26.63 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 52.2¢ | $345.1 | $363.6 | +$60.87 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86¢ | $351.58 | $362.19 | +$10.61 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.4¢ | $304.41 | $350.8 | +$46.39 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $285.47 | $337.9 | +$52.43 | 51% 481-466 (947) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.3¢ | $354.08 | $339.21 | -$14.87 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 30¢ | $377.42 | — | -$358.63 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 47.7¢ | $238.71 | $269.8 | +$31.09 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 52¢ | $129.99 | $249.99 | +$119.99 | 74% 1022-354 (1376) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $119.21 | $243.86 | +$124.65 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $180 | -$0 | 53% 304-271 (575) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.3¢ | $197.23 | $162.39 | -$34.84 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 81.6¢ | $141.04 | $139.46 | -$1.58 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $61.25 | $123.63 | +$62.38 | 50% 467-464 (931) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 56.6¢ | $160.6 | — | -$160.6 | 50% 464-455 (919) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $78.88 | $92.86 | +$16.44 | 53% 4211-3679 (7890) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 75.3¢ | $113.98 | $90.32 | -$23.66 | 36% 467-841 (1308) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 78.7¢ | $210.74 | $91.11 | -$9.49 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
Invested
$8,696
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$95.12
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$716.24
Value
$864.48
PnL
+$155.94
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$572.96
Value
—
PnL
-$572.96
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$515.32
Value
$469.7
PnL
-$26.63
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$345.1
Value
$363.6
PnL
+$60.87
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$351.58
Value
$362.19
PnL
+$10.61
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$304.41
Value
$350.8
PnL
+$46.39
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$285.47
Value
$337.9
PnL
+$52.43
Record
51%
481-466 (947)
Invested
$354.08
Value
$339.21
PnL
-$14.87
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$377.42
Value
—
PnL
-$358.63
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$238.71
Value
$269.8
PnL
+$31.09
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
BoneOhioInvested
$129.99
Value
$249.99
PnL
+$119.99
Record
74%
1022-354 (1376)
Invested
$119.21
Value
$243.86
PnL
+$124.65
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
304-271 (575)
Invested
$197.23
Value
$162.39
PnL
-$34.84
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$141.04
Value
$139.46
PnL
-$1.58
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$61.25
Value
$123.63
PnL
+$62.38
Record
50%
467-464 (931)
Invested
$160.6
Value
—
PnL
-$160.6
Record
50%
464-455 (919)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$78.88
Value
$92.86
PnL
+$16.44
Record
53%
4211-3679 (7890)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$113.98
Value
$90.32
PnL
-$23.66
Record
36%
467-841 (1308)
Invested
$210.74
Value
$91.11
PnL
-$9.49
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $864.48
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
blue.birds
Down — $469.7
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $363.6
EZTRADENL2
Down — $362.19