Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
72
Down 75%
$37.6K
$-6.2K
Smart Money Signal
53 of 72 top traders (74%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$6.91 | 48% 842-904 (1746) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $7.8K | — | $-6.5K | 56% 121-94 (215) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$22.81 | — 0-1 (1) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$75.75 | 45% 425-510 (935) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 499-3 (502) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$139.62 | 48% 1121-1213 (2334) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.2¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$217.13 | 46% 599-699 (1298) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.8¢ | $949.63 | $1.1K | +$157.06 | 47% 765-855 (1620) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.2¢ | $824.91 | $914.8 | +$89.9 | 47% 771-869 (1640) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.1¢ | $1.4K | $754.46 | -$63.5 | 50% 4000-3988 (7988) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71.6¢ | $648.37 | $678.26 | +$29.89 | 59% 613-418 (1031) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $654.82 | $650 | -$4.82 | 28% 472-1230 (1702) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.8¢ | $566.62 | $628.97 | +$62.35 | 42% 664-906 (1570) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $564.11 | $566.34 | +$2.23 | 46% 853-986 (1839) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $553.41 | $559 | +$5.59 | 98% 2190-44 (2234) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$21.1 | 51% 2043-1985 (4028) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82.9¢ | $500.81 | $527 | +$26.19 | 53% 1315-1180 (2495) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.8¢ | $449.32 | $434.08 | -$15.24 | 52% 4014-3748 (7762) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 94¢ | $396.76 | $420.6 | +$23.84 | 33% 619-1244 (1863) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $353.84 | $363.21 | +$9.44 | 49% 479-492 (971) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 27¢ | $278.68 | — | -$278.68 | 41% 420-594 (1014) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $186.97 | $261.17 | +$74.2 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 80¢ | $227.32 | $224.82 | -$2.5 | 54% 3880-3241 (7121) |
Invested
$8,999.11
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$6.91
Record
48%
842-904 (1746)
Invested
$7,821
Value
—
PnL
$-6.5K
Record
56%
121-94 (215)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$22.81
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$75.75
Record
45%
425-510 (935)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
499-3 (502)
Invested
$1,988.78
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$139.62
Record
48%
1121-1213 (2334)
Invested
$1,827.92
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$217.13
Record
46%
599-699 (1298)
Invested
$949.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$157.06
Record
47%
765-855 (1620)
Invested
$824.91
Value
$914.8
PnL
+$89.9
Record
47%
771-869 (1640)
Invested
$1,382.75
Value
$754.46
PnL
-$63.5
Record
50%
4000-3988 (7988)
Invested
$648.37
Value
$678.26
PnL
+$29.89
Record
59%
613-418 (1031)
Invested
$654.82
Value
$650
PnL
-$4.82
Record
28%
472-1230 (1702)
machinelearnedInvested
$566.62
Value
$628.97
PnL
+$62.35
Record
42%
664-906 (1570)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$564.11
Value
$566.34
PnL
+$2.23
Record
46%
853-986 (1839)
Invested
$553.41
Value
$559
PnL
+$5.59
Record
98%
2190-44 (2234)
Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$21.1
Record
51%
2043-1985 (4028)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$500.81
Value
$527
PnL
+$26.19
Record
53%
1315-1180 (2495)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$449.32
Value
$434.08
PnL
-$15.24
Record
52%
4014-3748 (7762)
pspspsps5Invested
$396.76
Value
$420.6
PnL
+$23.84
Record
33%
619-1244 (1863)
Invested
$353.84
Value
$363.21
PnL
+$9.44
Record
49%
479-492 (971)
Invested
$278.68
Value
—
PnL
-$278.68
Record
41%
420-594 (1014)
Invested
$186.97
Value
$261.17
PnL
+$74.2
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$227.32
Value
$224.82
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
3880-3241 (7121)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $2.0K
almach
Down — $1.1K
mo-money
Down — $914.8
bosona
Down — $754.46