Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Down 67%
3 arb excluded
$19.1K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 58 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.9K | -$20.15 | 56% 109-86 (195) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$130.87 | 45% 414-498 (912) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $945.76 | $827.09 | -$118.5 | 48% 1091-1180 (2271) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.4¢ | $752.61 | $714.37 | -$38.24 | 52% 3971-3716 (7687) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 50.7¢ | $667.25 | $703.4 | +$45.05 | 41% 406-584 (990) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 56.6¢ | $363.54 | $448 | +$84.47 | 60% 600-406 (1006) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $367.56 | $369.79 | +$2.48 | 49% 465-482 (947) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 24.7¢ | $362.01 | — | -$362.01 | 46% 585-682 (1267) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $269.16 | $319.61 | +$50.45 | 50% 438-446 (884) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 54.3¢ | $224.67 | $298.12 | +$76.33 | 35% 450-821 (1271) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 77¢ | $256.91 | $253.48 | -$3.43 | 50% 444-442 (886) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 50.7¢ | $146.37 | $212.75 | +$82.01 | 60% 555-373 (928) |
BO bosona | Downavg 39¢ | $194.99 | $499.98 | +$304.99 | 50% 3968-3980 (7948) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53.7¢ | $196.2 | $200.46 | +$4.25 | 54% 3861-3228 (7089) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 42.2¢ | $227.22 | — | -$226.42 | 43% 438-592 (1030) |
AL almach | Downavg 73.8¢ | $142.26 | $192.79 | +$50.53 | 47% 742-842 (1584) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 51% 262-252 (514) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 50.1¢ | $87.67 | $174.97 | +$87.3 | 53% 4194-3661 (7855) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.6¢ | $304.02 | $174.95 | -$29.07 | 53% 1280-1152 (2432) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $79.04 | $166.59 | +$87.55 | 49% 430-453 (883) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 75.9¢ | $186.93 | $167.12 | -$19.81 | 67% 2068-1040 (3108) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 55¢ | $132.59 | $170.79 | +$72.81 | 60% 566-385 (951) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $136.8 | $169 | +$32.19 | 44% 396-496 (892) |
Invested
$8,817
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$20.15
Record
56%
109-86 (195)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$130.87
Record
45%
414-498 (912)
Invested
$945.76
Value
$827.09
PnL
-$118.5
Record
48%
1091-1180 (2271)
Invested
$752.61
Value
$714.37
PnL
-$38.24
Record
52%
3971-3716 (7687)
Invested
$667.25
Value
$703.4
PnL
+$45.05
Record
41%
406-584 (990)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$363.54
Value
$448
PnL
+$84.47
Record
60%
600-406 (1006)
Invested
$367.56
Value
$369.79
PnL
+$2.48
Record
49%
465-482 (947)
Invested
$362.01
Value
—
PnL
-$362.01
Record
46%
585-682 (1267)
Invested
$269.16
Value
$319.61
PnL
+$50.45
Record
50%
438-446 (884)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$224.67
Value
$298.12
PnL
+$76.33
Record
35%
450-821 (1271)
Invested
$256.91
Value
$253.48
PnL
-$3.43
Record
50%
444-442 (886)
Invested
$146.37
Value
$212.75
PnL
+$82.01
Record
60%
555-373 (928)
Invested
$194.99
Value
$499.98
PnL
+$304.99
Record
50%
3968-3980 (7948)
Invested
$196.2
Value
$200.46
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
3861-3228 (7089)
Invested
$227.22
Value
—
PnL
-$226.42
Record
43%
438-592 (1030)
Invested
$142.26
Value
$192.79
PnL
+$50.53
Record
47%
742-842 (1584)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
51%
262-252 (514)
FairValueMachineInvested
$87.67
Value
$174.97
PnL
+$87.3
Record
53%
4194-3661 (7855)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$304.02
Value
$174.95
PnL
-$29.07
Record
53%
1280-1152 (2432)
Invested
$79.04
Value
$166.59
PnL
+$87.55
Record
49%
430-453 (883)
Invested
$186.93
Value
$167.12
PnL
-$19.81
Record
67%
2068-1040 (3108)
Invested
$132.59
Value
$170.79
PnL
+$72.81
Record
60%
566-385 (951)
Invested
$136.8
Value
$169
PnL
+$32.19
Record
44%
396-496 (892)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.5K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $827.09
blue.birds
Down — $714.37
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $703.4
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $448
EZTRADENL2
Down — $369.79
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0