Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

38 of 56 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$317.1

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 56 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares18,257

Combined PnL+$716.21

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,614

Combined PnL-$399.11

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.2K	+$84.71	55% 101-83 (184)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$28.21	45% 408-493 (901)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$33.25	99% 485-3 (488)
09 0x0970...e369ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$543.69	+$0.54	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$271.56	$377.46	+$107.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$272.5	$166.23	-$106.83
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
MO mo-money	Downavg 97¢	$490	$500	+$10	46% 731-854 (1585)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 71.7¢	$449.79	$451.29	+$3.89	41% 402-577 (979)
BO bosona	Downavg 97¢	$438.29	$445.62	+$7.32	50% 3956-3972 (7928)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 69¢	$305.38	$442.26	+$136.89	55% 1208-984 (2192)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 53.6¢	$350.64	$425.66	+$88.42	60% 593-402 (995)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 77.7¢	$329.82	$374.15	+$44.33	52% 3955-3700 (7655)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 49¢	$395.04	$366.1	-$28.93	48% 1079-1166 (2245)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 66.9¢	$235.39	$317.82	+$82.43	59% 560-382 (942)
SU suntori	Downavg 96.1¢	$296.76	$296.47	+$11.73	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
SP spartacray	Downavg 75.1¢	$254.09	$293.92	+$39.83	58% 540-391 (931)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 75.8¢	$278.03	$292.75	+$67.64	60% 550-368 (918)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 93¢	$221.75	$227.76	+$6.01	49% 461-475 (936)
machinelearned	Downavg 81¢	$180.7	$208.64	+$27.94	42% 643-890 (1533)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 63.1¢	$195.78	$203.48	+$13.78	67% 2047-1024 (3071)
ST stepahead	Downavg 58.5¢	$198.15	$198.08	-$0.07	54% 3852-3222 (7074)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 73.2¢	$203.89	$190.64	-$13.24	44% 391-490 (881)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 75¢	$182.07	$189.62	+$7.55	56% 517-403 (920)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 63.1¢	$172.63	$170.42	-$2.21	47% 868-975 (1843)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$150	$135	-$15	53% 582-524 (1106)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$126.5	$106.25	-$20.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$23.5	$28.75	+$5.25

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,771

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$84.71

Record

55%

101-83 (184)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$28.21

Record

45%

408-493 (901)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$33.25

Record

99%

485-3 (488)

0x0970...e369ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$543.69

PnL

+$0.54

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$271.5650¢+$107.36

Up$272.550¢-$106.83

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

mo-money

Down

Invested

$490

Value

$500

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

731-854 (1585)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$449.79

Value

$451.29

PnL

+$3.89

Record

41%

402-577 (979)

bosona

Down

Invested

$438.29

Value

$445.62

PnL

+$7.32

Record

50%

3956-3972 (7928)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$305.38

Value

$442.26

PnL

+$136.89

Record

55%

1208-984 (2192)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$350.64

Value

$425.66

PnL

+$88.42

Record

60%

593-402 (995)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$329.82

Value

$374.15

PnL

+$44.33

Record

52%

3955-3700 (7655)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$395.04

Value

$366.1

PnL

-$28.93

Record

48%

1079-1166 (2245)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$235.39

Value

$317.82

PnL

+$82.43

Record

59%

560-382 (942)

suntori

Down

Invested

$296.76

Value

$296.47

PnL

+$11.73

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$254.09

Value

$293.92

PnL

+$39.83

Record

58%

540-391 (931)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$278.03

Value

$292.75

PnL

+$67.64

Record

60%

550-368 (918)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$221.75

Value

$227.76

PnL

+$6.01

Record

49%

461-475 (936)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$180.7

Value

$208.64

PnL

+$27.94

Record

42%

643-890 (1533)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$195.78

Value

$203.48

PnL

+$13.78

Record

67%

2047-1024 (3071)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$198.15

Value

$198.08

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

3852-3222 (7074)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$203.89

Value

$190.64

PnL

-$13.24

Record

44%

391-490 (881)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$182.07

Value

$189.62

PnL

+$7.55

Record

56%

517-403 (920)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$172.63

Value

$170.42

PnL

-$2.21

Record

47%

868-975 (1843)

Little-bigARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$135

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

582-524 (1106)

Both legs:

Down$126.550.6¢-$20.25

Up$23.547¢+$5.25

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 56 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.