Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$-7.9K

Smart Money Signal

37 of 49 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,928

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Up37 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares11,874

Combined PnL+$210.36

Down — 24%Up — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-8.0K	55% 101-83 (184)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	+$32.81	45% 408-493 (901)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$21.97	74% 942-328 (1270)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 93.7¢	$485.67	$494.19	+$8.53	49% 461-475 (936)
ST stepahead	Upavg 78¢	$441.88	$464.18	+$22.3	54% 3852-3222 (7074)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 83.3¢	$328.17	$387.14	+$58.96	51% 443-434 (877)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.5¢	$316.4	$289.69	-$26.72	60% 593-402 (995)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 88.5¢	$299.32	$278.09	-$21.23	46% 576-676 (1252)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 84.1¢	$248.01	$248.01	+$0	27% 453-1214 (1667)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$178.94	$211.87	+$32.93	42% 643-890 (1533)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$140.43	$211.87	+$71.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.8¢	$38.51	—	-$38.51
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 79.1¢	$174.9	$221.25	+$46.35	59% 560-382 (942)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 85.8¢	$190.22	$188.71	-$0.16	52% 3955-3700 (7655)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 81.1¢	$154.44	$190.34	+$35.9	60% 550-368 (918)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 87.2¢	$183.26	$185.56	+$2.3	35% 444-816 (1260)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 89.7¢	$163.37	$166.72	+$3.35	53% 1264-1138 (2402)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 86.2¢	$187.26	$164	-$19.1	42% 431-588 (1019)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 92¢	$155.48	$169	+$13.52	50% 434-440 (874)
BO bosona	Upavg 87.3¢	$122.42	$138.34	+$15.92	50% 3956-3972 (7928)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 83.1¢	$183.32	$125.93	-$54.4	41% 402-577 (979)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$78.66	$95.84	+$17.18	67% 2047-1024 (3071)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$78.01	$94.72	+$16.71	50% 3513-3455 (6968)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$74.18	$72.67	-$1.51	47% 868-975 (1843)
SP spartacray	Upavg 92.1¢	$112.79	$89.15	+$4.33	58% 540-391 (931)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,621

Value

—

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

55%

101-83 (184)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$32.81

Record

45%

408-493 (901)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,572.58

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$21.97

Record

74%

942-328 (1270)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$485.67

Value

$494.19

PnL

+$8.53

Record

49%

461-475 (936)

stepahead

Invested

$441.88

Value

$464.18

PnL

+$22.3

Record

54%

3852-3222 (7074)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$328.17

Value

$387.14

PnL

+$58.96

Record

51%

443-434 (877)

Bonereaper

Invested

$316.4

Value

$289.69

PnL

-$26.72

Record

60%

593-402 (995)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$299.32

Value

$278.09

PnL

-$21.23

Record

46%

576-676 (1252)

ply-pm0

Invested

$248.01

Value

$248.01

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

453-1214 (1667)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$178.94

Value

$211.87

PnL

+$32.93

Record

42%

643-890 (1533)

Both legs:

Up$140.4366.3¢+$71.44

Down$38.519.8¢-$38.51

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$174.9

Value

$221.25

PnL

+$46.35

Record

59%

560-382 (942)

blue.birds

Invested

$190.22

Value

$188.71

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

3955-3700 (7655)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$154.44

Value

$190.34

PnL

+$35.9

Record

60%

550-368 (918)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$183.26

Value

$185.56

PnL

+$2.3

Record

35%

444-816 (1260)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$163.37

Value

$166.72

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

1264-1138 (2402)

GoodFallen

Invested

$187.26

Value

$164

PnL

-$19.1

Record

42%

431-588 (1019)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$155.48

Value

$169

PnL

+$13.52

Record

50%

434-440 (874)

bosona

Invested

$122.42

Value

$138.34

PnL

+$15.92

Record

50%

3956-3972 (7928)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$183.32

Value

$125.93

PnL

-$54.4

Record

41%

402-577 (979)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$78.66

Value

$95.84

PnL

+$17.18

Record

67%

2047-1024 (3071)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$78.01

Value

$94.72

PnL

+$16.71

Record

50%

3513-3455 (6968)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$74.18

Value

$72.67

PnL

-$1.51

Record

47%

868-975 (1843)

spartacray

Invested

$112.79

Value

$89.15

PnL

+$4.33

Record

58%

540-391 (931)

Smart Money Signal

37 of 49 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x598d43b5...1008f9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794479700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.0K

machine-earning

Up — $3.7K

+$32.81

BoneOhio

Up — $2.6K

+$21.97

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

+$0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0

EZTRADENL2

Up — $494.19

+$8.53

stepahead

Up — $464.18

+$22.3

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $387.14

+$58.96

Bonereaper

Up — $289.69

-$26.72

CrouchPredictions

Up — $278.09

-$21.23

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