Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$11.7K
$-12.1K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 45 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.7K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 408-493 (901) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.25 | 48% 784-863 (1647) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$24.95 | 74% 942-328 (1270) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 92.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$3.99 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.2¢ | $870.42 | $991.25 | +$120.83 | 42% 643-890 (1533) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 82.1¢ | $514.01 | $510.24 | -$3.77 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $276.87 | $318.9 | +$42.03 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.3¢ | $283.29 | $299.99 | +$16.7 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $270.64 | $279.31 | +$8.67 | 50% 454-448 (902) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 90.3¢ | $254.05 | $251.34 | -$2.71 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 83¢ | $239.85 | $250.36 | +$10.51 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.7¢ | $199.14 | $199.99 | +$0.85 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.9¢ | $317.16 | $196.21 | +$9.14 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 80.7¢ | $145.6 | $169.74 | +$24.14 | 52% 481-436 (917) |
BO bosona | Downavg 77.3¢ | $125.94 | $158.85 | +$32.91 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 80¢ | $149.6 | $144.98 | -$4.62 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $116.61 | $130.98 | +$14.38 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87¢ | $105.71 | $118.78 | +$13.07 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 82¢ | $99.05 | $117.87 | +$20.95 | 60% 550-368 (918) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $97.41 | $75.5 | -$21.92 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.6¢ | $59.33 | $75.5 | +$16.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.7¢ | $38.08 | — | -$38.08 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 82.3¢ | $106.19 | $85.47 | -$20.72 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $85.02 | — | -$85.02 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
Invested
$8,933
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Invested
$3,004.76
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.25
Record
48%
784-863 (1647)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,469.86
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$24.95
Record
74%
942-328 (1270)
Invested
$1,503.74
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$3.99
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
machinelearnedInvested
$870.42
Value
$991.25
PnL
+$120.83
Record
42%
643-890 (1533)
Invested
$514.01
Value
$510.24
PnL
-$3.77
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$276.87
Value
$318.9
PnL
+$42.03
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$283.29
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$16.7
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$270.64
Value
$279.31
PnL
+$8.67
Record
50%
454-448 (902)
Invested
$254.05
Value
$251.34
PnL
-$2.71
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$239.85
Value
$250.36
PnL
+$10.51
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
Invested
$199.14
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$317.16
Value
$196.21
PnL
+$9.14
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$145.6
Value
$169.74
PnL
+$24.14
Record
52%
481-436 (917)
Invested
$125.94
Value
$158.85
PnL
+$32.91
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$149.6
Value
$144.98
PnL
-$4.62
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$116.61
Value
$130.98
PnL
+$14.38
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$105.71
Value
$118.78
PnL
+$13.07
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$99.05
Value
$117.87
PnL
+$20.95
Record
60%
550-368 (918)
Invested
$97.41
Value
$75.5
PnL
-$21.92
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Both legs:
Invested
$106.19
Value
$85.47
PnL
-$20.72
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
Invested
$85.02
Value
—
PnL
-$85.02
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $2.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
machinelearned
Down — $991.25
CrouchPredictions
Down — $510.24
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $318.9