Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Up 80%
4 arb excluded
$11.0K
$-9.5K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 50 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.7K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 408-493 (901) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$33.08 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 68.1¢ | $848.69 | $1.1K | +$228.54 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $656.93 | $951.03 | +$294.1 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.7¢ | $632.01 | $645.47 | +$32.86 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
AL almach | Upavg 49.2¢ | $260.4 | $505 | +$244.6 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 48.6¢ | $247.03 | $484.4 | +$237.37 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $403.26 | $316.77 | -$86.49 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.4¢ | $210.42 | $316.77 | +$106.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31¢ | $192.84 | — | -$192.84 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 70¢ | $276.94 | $357.93 | +$80.99 | 42% 643-890 (1533) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 61.6¢ | $265.2 | $287.13 | +$21.93 | 50% 434-440 (874) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 71¢ | $283.97 | $270 | -$13.97 | 52% 481-436 (917) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $235.62 | $267.66 | +$32.04 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 73¢ | $244.07 | $274.5 | +$30.42 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 56.1¢ | $211.43 | $247.09 | +$35.65 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 78.9¢ | $188.01 | $237.72 | +$49.7 | 58% 540-391 (931) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 64.1¢ | $231.51 | $220.99 | -$10.52 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $225.14 | $190.47 | +$10.8 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $191.35 | $182.82 | -$8.53 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.5¢ | $119.8 | $182.82 | +$63.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.8¢ | $71.55 | — | -$71.55 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 79.6¢ | $154.33 | $187.74 | +$34.86 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $84.78 | $133.36 | +$48.58 | 48% 420-459 (879) |
BO bosona | Upavg 55¢ | $67.98 | $110.55 | +$42.57 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 49.9¢ | $52.63 | $105.52 | +$52.89 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
Invested
$8,673
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Invested
$2,034.08
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$33.08
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$848.69
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$228.54
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$656.93
Value
$951.03
PnL
+$294.1
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$632.01
Value
$645.47
PnL
+$32.86
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$260.4
Value
$505
PnL
+$244.6
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$247.03
Value
$484.4
PnL
+$237.37
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$403.26
Value
$316.77
PnL
-$86.49
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$276.94
Value
$357.93
PnL
+$80.99
Record
42%
643-890 (1533)
Invested
$265.2
Value
$287.13
PnL
+$21.93
Record
50%
434-440 (874)
Invested
$283.97
Value
$270
PnL
-$13.97
Record
52%
481-436 (917)
Invested
$235.62
Value
$267.66
PnL
+$32.04
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$244.07
Value
$274.5
PnL
+$30.42
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
Invested
$211.43
Value
$247.09
PnL
+$35.65
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$188.01
Value
$237.72
PnL
+$49.7
Record
58%
540-391 (931)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$231.51
Value
$220.99
PnL
-$10.52
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$225.14
Value
$190.47
PnL
+$10.8
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$191.35
Value
$182.82
PnL
-$8.53
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.33
Value
$187.74
PnL
+$34.86
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
Invested
$84.78
Value
$133.36
PnL
+$48.58
Record
48%
420-459 (879)
Invested
$67.98
Value
$110.55
PnL
+$42.57
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$52.63
Value
$105.52
PnL
+$52.89
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $951.03
blue.birds
Up — $645.47
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
almach
Up — $505
mo-money
Up — $484.4