Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Up 74%
2 arb excluded
$18.5K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 50 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.7K | +$46.03 | 55% 101-83 (184) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 96.1¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$37.66 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.8K | 45% 408-493 (901) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 94.1¢ | $762.39 | $711.45 | -$50.94 | 42% 643-890 (1533) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $292.74 | $416.56 | +$123.82 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 62.3¢ | $300.58 | $419.98 | +$119.39 | 60% 550-368 (918) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 64.3¢ | $328.02 | $384.97 | +$56.95 | 59% 560-382 (942) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $282 | $300 | +$18 | 54% 218-184 (402) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $177 | — | -$177 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $105 | $300 | +$195 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50¢ | $271.53 | $543.06 | +$271.53 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 65.5¢ | $234.68 | $296.82 | +$62.14 | 58% 540-391 (931) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 67.3¢ | $254.9 | $240.1 | -$14.79 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 60.4¢ | $245.29 | $228.32 | -$16.97 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $214.23 | $228.78 | +$14.54 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $206.62 | $234.83 | +$28.21 | 50% 443-444 (887) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.2¢ | $205.28 | $218.76 | +$13.48 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 88¢ | $199.79 | $200 | +$0.21 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.4¢ | $140.08 | $202.33 | +$62.25 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 71¢ | $162.4 | $222.68 | +$60.29 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 62.1¢ | $200.03 | $192.7 | -$7.34 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
AL almach | Upavg 99¢ | $190.39 | $187.67 | -$2.72 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $184.14 | $186 | +$1.86 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 61.4¢ | $147.7 | $139.99 | -$7.71 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $129.29 | $160.11 | +$30.82 | 50% 434-440 (874) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $78.51 | $160.11 | +$81.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $50.78 | — | -$50.78 |
Invested
$8,648
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$46.03
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$3,131.12
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$37.66
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
machinelearnedInvested
$762.39
Value
$711.45
PnL
-$50.94
Record
42%
643-890 (1533)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$292.74
Value
$416.56
PnL
+$123.82
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$300.58
Value
$419.98
PnL
+$119.39
Record
60%
550-368 (918)
Invested
$328.02
Value
$384.97
PnL
+$56.95
Record
59%
560-382 (942)
Invested
$282
Value
$300
PnL
+$18
Record
54%
218-184 (402)
Both legs:
Invested
$271.53
Value
$543.06
PnL
+$271.53
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$234.68
Value
$296.82
PnL
+$62.14
Record
58%
540-391 (931)
Invested
$254.9
Value
$240.1
PnL
-$14.79
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$245.29
Value
$228.32
PnL
-$16.97
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$214.23
Value
$228.78
PnL
+$14.54
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$206.62
Value
$234.83
PnL
+$28.21
Record
50%
443-444 (887)
Invested
$205.28
Value
$218.76
PnL
+$13.48
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$199.79
Value
$200
PnL
+$0.21
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$140.08
Value
$202.33
PnL
+$62.25
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$162.4
Value
$222.68
PnL
+$60.29
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$200.03
Value
$192.7
PnL
-$7.34
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
Invested
$190.39
Value
$187.67
PnL
-$2.72
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$184.14
Value
$186
PnL
+$1.86
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$147.7
Value
$139.99
PnL
-$7.71
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$129.29
Value
$160.11
PnL
+$30.82
Record
50%
434-440 (874)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.7K
Bonereaper
Up — $3.2K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $711.45
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $416.56
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Up — $419.98
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $384.97
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded