Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 69%
3 arb excluded
$12.2K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 55 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.6K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | -$31.87 | 45% 408-493 (901) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.8K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.9K | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 66.8¢ | $795.53 | $854.33 | +$58.8 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.7¢ | $632.05 | $625.51 | -$6.53 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 72¢ | $542.47 | $586.86 | +$44.39 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 78.9¢ | $627.11 | $554.71 | -$72.4 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 67.1¢ | $417.66 | $520.54 | +$102.88 | 59% 560-382 (942) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.4¢ | $508.45 | $378.71 | -$122.05 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 62.6¢ | $385.35 | $378.26 | -$7.09 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 88¢ | $312.11 | $354.86 | +$42.75 | 17% 196-984 (1180) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $460.05 | $321.96 | -$38.09 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 63.3¢ | $299.36 | $335.39 | +$36.03 | 58% 540-391 (931) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.3¢ | $317.12 | $311.5 | -$5.62 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 21.4¢ | $135.16 | $107.74 | -$27.41 | 42% 643-890 (1533) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.4¢ | $96.55 | — | -$96.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.8¢ | $38.6 | $107.74 | +$69.14 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 86.8¢ | $189.87 | $213.81 | +$23.94 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 50.9¢ | $175.72 | $202.77 | +$27.05 | 52% 481-436 (917) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 78.1¢ | $182.65 | $211.21 | +$28.56 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $122.53 | $150.32 | +$27.79 | 44% 391-490 (881) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 51.2¢ | $131.23 | — | -$131.23 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 85.2¢ | $156.09 | $131.96 | -$22.21 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 78.3¢ | $109.14 | $132 | +$23.76 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 80.9¢ | $243.5 | $120 | +$1.5 | 60% 550-368 (918) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $165.17 | $102.52 | -$62.65 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.4¢ | $73.19 | $102.52 | +$29.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.7¢ | $91.98 | — | -$91.98 |
Invested
$8,780
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$31.87
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Both legs:
Invested
$795.53
Value
$854.33
PnL
+$58.8
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$632.05
Value
$625.51
PnL
-$6.53
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$542.47
Value
$586.86
PnL
+$44.39
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$627.11
Value
$554.71
PnL
-$72.4
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$417.66
Value
$520.54
PnL
+$102.88
Record
59%
560-382 (942)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$508.45
Value
$378.71
PnL
-$122.05
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$385.35
Value
$378.26
PnL
-$7.09
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
NIULAI4Invested
$312.11
Value
$354.86
PnL
+$42.75
Record
17%
196-984 (1180)
Invested
$460.05
Value
$321.96
PnL
-$38.09
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$299.36
Value
$335.39
PnL
+$36.03
Record
58%
540-391 (931)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$317.12
Value
$311.5
PnL
-$5.62
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$135.16
Value
$107.74
PnL
-$27.41
Record
42%
643-890 (1533)
Both legs:
Invested
$189.87
Value
$213.81
PnL
+$23.94
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$175.72
Value
$202.77
PnL
+$27.05
Record
52%
481-436 (917)
Invested
$182.65
Value
$211.21
PnL
+$28.56
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$122.53
Value
$150.32
PnL
+$27.79
Record
44%
391-490 (881)
Invested
$131.23
Value
—
PnL
-$131.23
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
Invested
$156.09
Value
$131.96
PnL
-$22.21
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$109.14
Value
$132
PnL
+$23.76
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
Invested
$243.5
Value
$120
PnL
+$1.5
Record
60%
550-368 (918)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$165.17
Value
$102.52
PnL
-$62.65
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $854.33
blue.birds
Up — $625.51
GoodFallen
Up — $586.86
CrouchPredictions
Up — $554.71
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $520.54
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
Bonereaper
Up — $378.71