Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$20.7K
-$99.95
Smart Money Signal
39 of 52 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.7K | +$148.46 | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$152.33 | 45% 408-493 (901) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 93.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$27.05 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83.4¢ | $672.4 | $800 | +$127.6 | 42% 643-890 (1533) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 97.9¢ | $630.63 | $644.33 | +$13.7 | 52% 537-498 (1035) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AL almach | Downavg 43¢ | $245 | $500 | +$255 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
BO bosona | Downavg 43¢ | $218.28 | $445.47 | +$227.19 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.2¢ | $353.83 | $361.36 | +$7.53 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.6¢ | $279.99 | $347.29 | +$67.31 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.9¢ | $349.11 | $350.86 | +$1.74 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $337.55 | $347.97 | +$10.42 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.4¢ | $323.1 | $338.29 | +$15.19 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 69.1¢ | $294.3 | $315.61 | +$21.31 | 58% 540-391 (931) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 67.8¢ | $267.62 | $295.73 | +$28.11 | 60% 550-368 (918) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $185.44 | $282.02 | +$96.58 | 51% 443-434 (877) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 55¢ | $236.16 | $245.61 | +$9.45 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $220.33 | $225 | +$4.67 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 53.2¢ | $114.06 | $175.93 | +$68.17 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 73.7¢ | $192.35 | $180 | -$12.35 | 59% 560-382 (942) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Upavg 41.2¢ | $161.33 | — | -$161.33 | 48% 423-450 (873) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 89¢ | $166.37 | $169 | +$2.63 | 50% 454-448 (902) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 59.3¢ | $87.12 | $132 | +$44.88 | 52% 481-436 (917) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $151.94 | $124.54 | -$27.2 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
Invested
$8,660
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$148.46
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$152.33
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Invested
$1,973.71
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$27.05
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
machinelearnedInvested
$672.4
Value
$800
PnL
+$127.6
Record
42%
643-890 (1533)
Invested
$630.63
Value
$644.33
PnL
+$13.7
Record
52%
537-498 (1035)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$245
Value
$500
PnL
+$255
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$218.28
Value
$445.47
PnL
+$227.19
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$353.83
Value
$361.36
PnL
+$7.53
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$279.99
Value
$347.29
PnL
+$67.31
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$349.11
Value
$350.86
PnL
+$1.74
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$337.55
Value
$347.97
PnL
+$10.42
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$323.1
Value
$338.29
PnL
+$15.19
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$294.3
Value
$315.61
PnL
+$21.31
Record
58%
540-391 (931)
Invested
$267.62
Value
$295.73
PnL
+$28.11
Record
60%
550-368 (918)
Invested
$185.44
Value
$282.02
PnL
+$96.58
Record
51%
443-434 (877)
Invested
$236.16
Value
$245.61
PnL
+$9.45
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$220.33
Value
$225
PnL
+$4.67
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$114.06
Value
$175.93
PnL
+$68.17
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$192.35
Value
$180
PnL
-$12.35
Record
59%
560-382 (942)
Invested
$161.33
Value
—
PnL
-$161.33
Record
48%
423-450 (873)
Invested
$166.37
Value
$169
PnL
+$2.63
Record
50%
454-448 (902)
Invested
$87.12
Value
$132
PnL
+$44.88
Record
52%
481-436 (917)
Invested
$151.94
Value
$124.54
PnL
-$27.2
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.7K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.0K
machinelearned
Down — $800
wzbbb
Down — $644.33
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $500
bosona
Down — $445.47
blue.birds
Down — $361.36