Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Down 56%
3 arb excluded
$19.1K
$-8.7K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 62 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.2K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $2.7K | +$341.44 | 45% 408-493 (901) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $2.7K | +$1.7K | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$155.38 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 73.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$180.07 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$172.38 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 84.7¢ | $995.06 | $1.0K | +$34.79 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 42.9¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.1K | 60% 593-402 (995) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 50.5¢ | $693.69 | $823.2 | +$136.06 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $933.94 | $816.63 | -$11.52 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $634.26 | $787.72 | +$153.46 | 50% 454-448 (902) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $742.76 | $780.91 | +$38.15 | 17% 196-984 (1180) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $684.52 | $770.23 | +$85.72 | 48% 423-450 (873) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $627.36 | $640 | +$12.64 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $678.65 | $633.55 | -$45.11 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.4¢ | $596.13 | $540.97 | -$55.17 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $447.91 | $934.7 | +$486.79 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 89¢ | $506.77 | $458.73 | -$48.04 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 56.2¢ | $402.32 | $455.58 | +$56.25 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 40.8¢ | $263.39 | $345.32 | +$85.93 | 53% 4186-3659 (7845) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 60¢ | $298.55 | $330.11 | +$31.56 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $189.21 | $298.9 | +$109.69 | 50% 443-444 (887) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 56.6¢ | $256.96 | $277.12 | +$20.16 | 52% 481-436 (917) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 56.2¢ | $260.65 | $272.7 | +$12.05 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
Invested
$8,636
Value
—
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$341.44
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,179.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$155.38
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$1,086.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$180.07
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$1,409.84
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$172.38
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$995.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$34.79
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$1,154.86
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$693.69
Value
$823.2
PnL
+$136.06
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$933.94
Value
$816.63
PnL
-$11.52
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$634.26
Value
$787.72
PnL
+$153.46
Record
50%
454-448 (902)
NIULAI4Invested
$742.76
Value
$780.91
PnL
+$38.15
Record
17%
196-984 (1180)
Invested
$684.52
Value
$770.23
PnL
+$85.72
Record
48%
423-450 (873)
Invested
$627.36
Value
$640
PnL
+$12.64
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Invested
$678.65
Value
$633.55
PnL
-$45.11
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$596.13
Value
$540.97
PnL
-$55.17
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$447.91
Value
$934.7
PnL
+$486.79
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Invested
$506.77
Value
$458.73
PnL
-$48.04
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$402.32
Value
$455.58
PnL
+$56.25
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
FairValueMachineInvested
$263.39
Value
$345.32
PnL
+$85.93
Record
53%
4186-3659 (7845)
Invested
$298.55
Value
$330.11
PnL
+$31.56
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$189.21
Value
$298.9
PnL
+$109.69
Record
50%
443-444 (887)
Invested
$256.96
Value
$277.12
PnL
+$20.16
Record
52%
481-436 (917)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$260.65
Value
$272.7
PnL
+$12.05
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
blue.birds
Down — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.0K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $823.2
ply-pm0
Down — $816.63
0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658
Down — $787.72