Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 64%
6 arb excluded
$14.4K
$-8.9K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 55 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.6K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | -$35.44 | 45% 408-493 (901) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.7K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.7K | |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$23.43 | 99% 485-3 (488) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 41.1¢ | $688.39 | $988.88 | +$300.49 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 51.5¢ | $824.6 | $871.55 | +$65.38 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 47¢ | $743.78 | — | -$610.14 | 27% 453-1214 (1667) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 49.8¢ | $519.75 | $595.72 | +$118.97 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 75.3¢ | $531.83 | $588.92 | +$57.09 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 58.5¢ | $527.32 | — | -$526.7 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 55.5¢ | $268.41 | $412.54 | +$144.13 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $382.12 | $365.96 | -$16.16 | 49% 461-475 (936) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $146.68 | $342.52 | +$195.84 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.6¢ | $286.8 | $312.62 | +$25.82 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $250.81 | $297.64 | +$46.82 | 48% 423-450 (873) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 58.5¢ | $203.93 | $258.9 | +$56.07 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $216.84 | $250.85 | +$34.02 | 51% 443-434 (877) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $227.96 | $251.5 | +$23.54 | 17% 196-984 (1180) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 52.1¢ | $246.18 | — | -$246.18 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
 ohioism | Downavg 62¢ | $130.06 | $209.72 | +$79.66 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 32.1¢ | $70.26 | $202.79 | +$132.53 | 48% 420-459 (879) |
BO bosona | Downavg 66.4¢ | $141.23 | $208.07 | +$66.84 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $210.4 | $198.38 | -$12.02 | 49% 570-602 (1172) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $189.9 | $180 | -$9.9 | 51% 254-244 (498) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.1¢ | $99.9 | — | -$99.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $180 | +$90 |
Invested
$8,703
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$35.44
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,319.6
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$23.43
Record
99%
485-3 (488)
Invested
$688.39
Value
$988.88
PnL
+$300.49
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$824.6
Value
$871.55
PnL
+$65.38
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$743.78
Value
—
PnL
-$610.14
Record
27%
453-1214 (1667)
Invested
$519.75
Value
$595.72
PnL
+$118.97
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$531.83
Value
$588.92
PnL
+$57.09
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$527.32
Value
—
PnL
-$526.7
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$268.41
Value
$412.54
PnL
+$144.13
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$382.12
Value
$365.96
PnL
-$16.16
Record
49%
461-475 (936)
Invested
$146.68
Value
$342.52
PnL
+$195.84
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$286.8
Value
$312.62
PnL
+$25.82
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$250.81
Value
$297.64
PnL
+$46.82
Record
48%
423-450 (873)
Invested
$203.93
Value
$258.9
PnL
+$56.07
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
Invested
$216.84
Value
$250.85
PnL
+$34.02
Record
51%
443-434 (877)
NIULAI4Invested
$227.96
Value
$251.5
PnL
+$23.54
Record
17%
196-984 (1180)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$246.18
Value
—
PnL
-$246.18
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
ohioismInvested
$130.06
Value
$209.72
PnL
+$79.66
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Invested
$70.26
Value
$202.79
PnL
+$132.53
Record
48%
420-459 (879)
Invested
$141.23
Value
$208.07
PnL
+$66.84
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$210.4
Value
$198.38
PnL
-$12.02
Record
49%
570-602 (1172)
Invested
$189.9
Value
$180
PnL
-$9.9
Record
51%
254-244 (498)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
THG.
Down — $2.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $988.88
blue.birds
Down — $871.55
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $595.72
mo-money
Down — $588.92
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0