Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
56
Up 59%
7 arb excluded
$12.9K
$-12.2K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 56 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-6.6K | 55% 101-83 (184) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | -$13.45 | 45% 408-493 (901) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $3.4K | +$1.6K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.6K | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 68.5¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 51.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$25.4 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 49.4¢ | $1.0K | — | -$983.63 | 41% 402-577 (979) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 48.6¢ | $676.48 | $1.0K | +$328.48 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $786.86 | $793.44 | +$6.58 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 66.4¢ | $679.43 | — | -$679.43 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 43.3¢ | $583.52 | $728.03 | +$144.52 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $631.51 | $722.28 | +$90.76 | 48% 423-450 (873) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $601.77 | $640.71 | +$38.94 | 17% 196-984 (1180) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 51.8¢ | $469.47 | — | -$469.47 | 35% 444-816 (1260) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 73.4¢ | $517.35 | $480.38 | -$36.97 | 56% 517-403 (920) |
BO bosona | Downavg 69.7¢ | $445.65 | $436.24 | -$9.42 | 50% 3956-3972 (7928) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 40.8¢ | $394.28 | — | -$305.05 | 42% 431-588 (1019) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $233.73 | $496.14 | +$262.41 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 54.4¢ | $407.22 | — | -$407.22 | 53% 4186-3659 (7845) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 63¢ | $220.5 | $350 | +$129.5 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR | Upavg 44.4¢ | $232.34 | — | -$232.34 | 50% 434-440 (874) |
FL flippingsharks | Downavg 61.8¢ | $269.28 | $302.32 | +$33.05 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $189.51 | $232.35 | +$42.84 | 44% 391-490 (881) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $155.74 | $165.83 | +$10.09 | 50% 443-444 (887) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $89.47 | $165.83 | +$76.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.4¢ | $66.27 | — | -$66.27 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $222.8 | $460 | +$237.2 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
Invested
$8,667
Value
—
PnL
$-6.6K
Record
55%
101-83 (184)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$13.45
Record
45%
408-493 (901)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,141.77
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$1,063.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$25.4
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$1,047.18
Value
—
PnL
-$983.63
Record
41%
402-577 (979)
Invested
$676.48
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$328.48
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
Invested
$786.86
Value
$793.44
PnL
+$6.58
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Invested
$679.43
Value
—
PnL
-$679.43
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$583.52
Value
$728.03
PnL
+$144.52
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$631.51
Value
$722.28
PnL
+$90.76
Record
48%
423-450 (873)
NIULAI4Invested
$601.77
Value
$640.71
PnL
+$38.94
Record
17%
196-984 (1180)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$469.47
Value
—
PnL
-$469.47
Record
35%
444-816 (1260)
Invested
$517.35
Value
$480.38
PnL
-$36.97
Record
56%
517-403 (920)
Invested
$445.65
Value
$436.24
PnL
-$9.42
Record
50%
3956-3972 (7928)
Invested
$394.28
Value
—
PnL
-$305.05
Record
42%
431-588 (1019)
Invested
$233.73
Value
$496.14
PnL
+$262.41
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$407.22
Value
—
PnL
-$407.22
Record
53%
4186-3659 (7845)
Invested
$220.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$129.5
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
Invested
$232.34
Value
—
PnL
-$232.34
Record
50%
434-440 (874)
Invested
$269.28
Value
$302.32
PnL
+$33.05
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$189.51
Value
$232.35
PnL
+$42.84
Record
44%
391-490 (881)
Invested
$155.74
Value
$165.83
PnL
+$10.09
Record
50%
443-444 (887)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.8
Value
$460
PnL
+$237.2
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
hoodquant
Down — $793.44
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $728.03
0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894
Down — $722.28