Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 20 of 53 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

20 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$74.85

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 53 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares14,994

Combined PnL-$334.23

Down33 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,078

Combined PnL+$409.08

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.4K	+$68.12	56% 96-75 (171)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$171.18	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 49.8¢	$909	$978.86	+$69.86	41% 395-571 (966)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.6¢	$878.63	$833.75	-$44.88	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50.9¢	$357.29	$626.61	+$269.32	48% 1066-1149 (2215)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.8¢	$609.49	$547.96	-$61.53	54% 3842-3215 (7057)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 49.8¢	$368.21	$518.15	+$149.94	42% 423-583 (1006)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56.8¢	$309.64	$384.63	+$74.98	35% 438-809 (1247)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 81.9¢	$441.23	$336.18	-$105.05	46% 568-667 (1235)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 44.1¢	$214.45	$328.37	+$113.92	27% 448-1206 (1654)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 61.1¢	$367.75	$315.06	-$49.89	59% 584-398 (982)
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 51.7¢	$177.73	$313.94	+$136.21	37% 416-698 (1114)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 80¢	$306.97	$304.55	-$2.42	51% 450-440 (890)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.2¢	$258.81	$288.03	+$29.21	53% 477-427 (904)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$271.51	$271.53	+$0.03	48% 418-450 (868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$159.34	$142.72	-$16.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$112.16	$128.81	+$16.65
AL almach	Downavg 92.2¢	$284.47	$242.5	-$41.97	47% 727-821 (1548)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$309.59	$207.17	-$102.42	50% 431-431 (862)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 53.2¢	$172.07	$193.75	+$21.67	50% 436-439 (875)
machinelearned	Downavg 45¢	$100.25	$184.16	+$83.92	42% 634-886 (1520)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$175.88	-$2.01	51% 244-238 (482)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$130.5	+$40.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$82.5	$45.38	-$42.51
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$157.7	$171.22	+$13.52	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.1¢	$107.27	$122.51	+$15.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.4¢	$50.43	$48.71	-$1.72
AS asdaefef	Downavg 75.5¢	$169.58	$160.08	-$9.07	66% 2010-1015 (3025)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 68.9¢	$133.67	$158.22	+$24.55	56% 505-402 (907)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,947

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$68.12

Record

56%

96-75 (171)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$171.18

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$909

Value

$978.86

PnL

+$69.86

Record

41%

395-571 (966)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$878.63

Value

$833.75

PnL

-$44.88

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$357.29

Value

$626.61

PnL

+$269.32

Record

48%

1066-1149 (2215)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$609.49

Value

$547.96

PnL

-$61.53

Record

54%

3842-3215 (7057)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$368.21

Value

$518.15

PnL

+$149.94

Record

42%

423-583 (1006)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$309.64

Value

$384.63

PnL

+$74.98

Record

35%

438-809 (1247)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$441.23

Value

$336.18

PnL

-$105.05

Record

46%

568-667 (1235)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$214.45

Value

$328.37

PnL

+$113.92

Record

27%

448-1206 (1654)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$367.75

Value

$315.06

PnL

-$49.89

Record

59%

584-398 (982)

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$177.73

Value

$313.94

PnL

+$136.21

Record

37%

416-698 (1114)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$306.97

Value

$304.55

PnL

-$2.42

Record

51%

450-440 (890)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$258.81

Value

$288.03

PnL

+$29.21

Record

53%

477-427 (904)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$271.51

Value

$271.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

418-450 (868)

Both legs:

Down$159.3460.8¢-$16.62

Up$112.1639.6¢+$16.65

almach

Down

Invested

$284.47

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$41.97

Record

47%

727-821 (1548)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR

Invested

$309.59

Value

$207.17

PnL

-$102.42

Record

50%

431-431 (862)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$172.07

Value

$193.75

PnL

+$21.67

Record

50%

436-439 (875)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$100.25

Value

$184.16

PnL

+$83.92

Record

42%

634-886 (1520)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$175.88

PnL

-$2.01

Record

51%

244-238 (482)

Both legs:

Down$9050¢+$40.5

Up$82.550¢-$42.51

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.7

Value

$171.22

PnL

+$13.52

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

Both legs:

Down$107.2766.1¢+$15.24

Up$50.4325.4¢-$1.72

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$169.58

Value

$160.08

PnL

-$9.07

Record

66%

2010-1015 (3025)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$133.67

Value

$158.22

PnL

+$24.55

Record

56%

505-402 (907)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 53 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.