Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Up 78%
1 arb excluded
$9.8K
$-10.9K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 54 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.6K | 56% 96-75 (171) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | — |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$29.99 | 74% 923-319 (1242) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85¢ | $518.62 | $610.15 | +$91.52 | 50% 3953-3959 (7912) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2312-1782 (4094) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
AL almach | Upavg 83.8¢ | $479.47 | $571.99 | +$92.53 | 47% 727-821 (1548) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 86¢ | $430 | $500 | +$70 | 46% 727-841 (1568) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 83.3¢ | $491.24 | $414.93 | -$76.31 | 42% 634-886 (1520) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.3¢ | $295.87 | $296.57 | +$0.7 | 53% 1253-1113 (2366) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 83.9¢ | $354.69 | $295.44 | -$59.25 | 46% 568-667 (1235) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 73.7¢ | $266.34 | $288.88 | +$22.53 | 54% 3842-3215 (7057) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 82.5¢ | $257.34 | $257.07 | -$0.28 | 35% 438-809 (1247) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $179.76 | $230.74 | +$50.98 | 44% 384-485 (869) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 82.8¢ | $216.95 | $219.8 | +$3.6 | 41% 395-571 (966) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 81.5¢ | $241.78 | $203.99 | -$36.82 | 59% 584-398 (982) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 84.1¢ | $193.28 | $198.49 | +$5.21 | 52% 3931-3686 (7617) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 83.8¢ | $233.22 | $189.86 | -$1.05 | 27% 448-1206 (1654) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 72.5¢ | $103.47 | $142.76 | +$39.29 | 53% 574-516 (1090) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 81¢ | $130.4 | $159.99 | +$29.58 | 59% 549-380 (929) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $98.87 | $128.56 | +$29.68 | 48% 416-446 (862) |
 ohioism | Upavg 85.7¢ | $107.5 | $125.4 | +$17.9 | 48% 1158-1248 (2406) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 48% 2055-2259 (4314) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $82.68 | $87.99 | +$5.31 | 56% 505-402 (907) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $52.37 | $72.28 | +$19.91 | 66% 2010-1015 (3025) |
Invested
$8,734
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
56%
96-75 (171)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
—
BoneOhioInvested
$2,968.87
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$29.99
Record
74%
923-319 (1242)
Invested
$518.62
Value
$610.15
PnL
+$91.52
Record
50%
3953-3959 (7912)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2312-1782 (4094)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$479.47
Value
$571.99
PnL
+$92.53
Record
47%
727-821 (1548)
Invested
$430
Value
$500
PnL
+$70
Record
46%
727-841 (1568)
machinelearnedInvested
$491.24
Value
$414.93
PnL
-$76.31
Record
42%
634-886 (1520)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$295.87
Value
$296.57
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
1253-1113 (2366)
Invested
$354.69
Value
$295.44
PnL
-$59.25
Record
46%
568-667 (1235)
Invested
$266.34
Value
$288.88
PnL
+$22.53
Record
54%
3842-3215 (7057)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$257.34
Value
$257.07
PnL
-$0.28
Record
35%
438-809 (1247)
Invested
$179.76
Value
$230.74
PnL
+$50.98
Record
44%
384-485 (869)
Invested
$216.95
Value
$219.8
PnL
+$3.6
Record
41%
395-571 (966)
Invested
$241.78
Value
$203.99
PnL
-$36.82
Record
59%
584-398 (982)
Invested
$193.28
Value
$198.49
PnL
+$5.21
Record
52%
3931-3686 (7617)
Invested
$233.22
Value
$189.86
PnL
-$1.05
Record
27%
448-1206 (1654)
Invested
$103.47
Value
$142.76
PnL
+$39.29
Record
53%
574-516 (1090)
Invested
$130.4
Value
$159.99
PnL
+$29.58
Record
59%
549-380 (929)
Invested
$98.87
Value
$128.56
PnL
+$29.68
Record
48%
416-446 (862)
ohioismInvested
$107.5
Value
$125.4
PnL
+$17.9
Record
48%
1158-1248 (2406)
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
48%
2055-2259 (4314)
Invested
$82.68
Value
$87.99
PnL
+$5.31
Record
56%
505-402 (907)
Invested
$52.37
Value
$72.28
PnL
+$19.91
Record
66%
2010-1015 (3025)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
bosona
Up — $610.15
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
almach
Up — $571.99
mo-money
Up — $500
machinelearned
Up — $414.93
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $296.57