Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 62%
6 arb excluded
$12.6K
$-8.5K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 53 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.2K | 56% 96-75 (171) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.3K | +$149.89 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 72.1¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$386.69 | 59% 584-398 (982) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 59.8¢ | $932.82 | — | -$932.82 | 52% 3931-3686 (7617) |
BO bosona | Upavg 93.4¢ | $575.9 | $615 | +$39.1 | 50% 3953-3959 (7912) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 79.2¢ | $630.85 | $588.66 | -$42.18 | 42% 634-886 (1520) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $581.76 | — | -$581.76 | 41% 395-571 (966) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 94.1¢ | $525.7 | $553.83 | +$28.13 | 46% 727-841 (1568) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2312-1782 (4094) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
ST stepahead | Upavg 46.9¢ | $451.41 | $492.58 | +$41.17 | 54% 3842-3215 (7057) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 77.8¢ | $355.82 | $366.83 | +$11.01 | 46% 568-667 (1235) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 71¢ | $337.4 | $377.08 | +$39.68 | 50% 431-431 (862) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $239.68 | $307.29 | +$67.61 | 48% 416-446 (862) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 51.6¢ | $359.41 | — | -$359.41 | 35% 438-809 (1247) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 36.2¢ | $178.3 | $245.76 | +$142.99 | 42% 423-583 (1006) |
AL almach | Upavg 96¢ | $218.82 | $224.81 | +$5.99 | 47% 727-821 (1548) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 37.1¢ | $178.73 | $253.91 | +$75.18 | 53% 1253-1113 (2366) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.1¢ | $94.2 | $253.91 | +$159.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $84.53 | — | -$84.53 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $190.65 | $210 | +$19.35 | 51% 244-238 (482) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $100.65 | $210 | +$109.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $120.09 | $187.61 | +$67.52 | 51% 450-440 (890) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 29¢ | $169.1 | — | -$169.1 | 50% 436-439 (875) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 23.6¢ | $70.89 | $300 | +$229.11 | 38% 583-966 (1549) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 32.9¢ | $94.42 | $142.7 | +$71.19 | 53% 4180-3653 (7833) |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $251.64 | $124.22 | -$126.15 | 58% 531-387 (918) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.2¢ | $77.24 | $124.22 | +$46.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $172.8 | — | -$172.97 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 68.2¢ | $116.37 | $130.96 | +$14.59 | 56% 505-402 (907) |
Invested
$8,985
Value
—
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
56%
96-75 (171)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$149.89
Record
—
Invested
$1,688.56
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$386.69
Record
59%
584-398 (982)
Invested
$932.82
Value
—
PnL
-$932.82
Record
52%
3931-3686 (7617)
Invested
$575.9
Value
$615
PnL
+$39.1
Record
50%
3953-3959 (7912)
machinelearnedInvested
$630.85
Value
$588.66
PnL
-$42.18
Record
42%
634-886 (1520)
Invested
$581.76
Value
—
PnL
-$581.76
Record
41%
395-571 (966)
Invested
$525.7
Value
$553.83
PnL
+$28.13
Record
46%
727-841 (1568)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2312-1782 (4094)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$451.41
Value
$492.58
PnL
+$41.17
Record
54%
3842-3215 (7057)
Invested
$355.82
Value
$366.83
PnL
+$11.01
Record
46%
568-667 (1235)
Invested
$337.4
Value
$377.08
PnL
+$39.68
Record
50%
431-431 (862)
Invested
$239.68
Value
$307.29
PnL
+$67.61
Record
48%
416-446 (862)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$359.41
Value
—
PnL
-$359.41
Record
35%
438-809 (1247)
Invested
$178.3
Value
$245.76
PnL
+$142.99
Record
42%
423-583 (1006)
Invested
$218.82
Value
$224.81
PnL
+$5.99
Record
47%
727-821 (1548)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$178.73
Value
$253.91
PnL
+$75.18
Record
53%
1253-1113 (2366)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.65
Value
$210
PnL
+$19.35
Record
51%
244-238 (482)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.09
Value
$187.61
PnL
+$67.52
Record
51%
450-440 (890)
Invested
$169.1
Value
—
PnL
-$169.1
Record
50%
436-439 (875)
Invested
$70.89
Value
$300
PnL
+$229.11
Record
38%
583-966 (1549)
FairValueMachineInvested
$94.42
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$71.19
Record
53%
4180-3653 (7833)
Invested
$251.64
Value
$124.22
PnL
-$126.15
Record
58%
531-387 (918)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.37
Value
$130.96
PnL
+$14.59
Record
56%
505-402 (907)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
Up — $3.3K
Bonereaper
Up — $2.1K
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $615
machinelearned
Up — $588.66
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $553.83
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500