Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$-12.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 56 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,639

Combined PnL$-13.7K

Up27 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,242

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-7.0K	56% 96-75 (171)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$2.8K	+$103.55	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.4K	$2.8K	+$1.7K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 47.9¢	$936.48	—	-$899.96	41% 395-571 (966)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 53.7¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	16% 192-979 (1171)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 47.2¢	$481.16	$923.16	+$442	51% 450-440 (890)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 59.7¢	$538.01	$638.54	+$100.52	48% 418-450 (868)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 56.6¢	$709.71	$635.07	-$24.64	27% 448-1206 (1654)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 57.7¢	$558.63	$578.42	+$19.8	53% 477-427 (904)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 40.4¢	$267.83	$575.11	+$307.68	46% 568-667 (1235)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 62.9¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	50% 3953-3959 (7912)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
MO mo-money	Upavg 91¢	$460.55	$499.99	+$39.44	46% 727-841 (1568)
AL almach	Upavg 91¢	$455	$500	+$45	47% 727-821 (1548)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 53.4¢	$491.67	—	-$436.33	42% 423-583 (1006)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 46.3¢	$305.26	$486.72	+$202.47	35% 438-809 (1247)
machinelearned	Upavg 81.2¢	$575.36	$476.26	-$99.1	42% 634-886 (1520)
ST stepahead	Upavg 52.8¢	$462.06	$453.97	-$8.09	54% 3842-3215 (7057)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.6¢	$451.57	$385.95	-$65.62	52% 3931-3686 (7617)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 82.8¢	$304.25	$367.34	+$63.09	55% 1188-970 (2158)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Downavg 35.1¢	$291.24	—	-$291.24	50% 434-430 (864)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 12.2¢	$73.23	—	-$73.23	38% 583-966 (1549)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 32.3¢	$188.65	$292.6	+$162.42	53% 4180-3653 (7833)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 49.7¢	$283.53	—	-$283.53	56% 505-402 (907)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$191.28	$235.76	+$44.48	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.8¢	$23.91	—	-$23.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$167.37	$235.76	+$68.39

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,555

Value

—

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

56%

96-75 (171)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$103.55

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$1,415.1850¢$-1.5K

Up$1,415.1750¢+$1.7K

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$936.48

Value

—

PnL

-$899.96

Record

41%

395-571 (966)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$1,211.83

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

16%

192-979 (1171)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$481.16

Value

$923.16

PnL

+$442

Record

51%

450-440 (890)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$538.01

Value

$638.54

PnL

+$100.52

Record

48%

418-450 (868)

ply-pm0

Invested

$709.71

Value

$635.07

PnL

-$24.64

Record

27%

448-1206 (1654)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$558.63

Value

$578.42

PnL

+$19.8

Record

53%

477-427 (904)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$267.83

Value

$575.11

PnL

+$307.68

Record

46%

568-667 (1235)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$1,330.61

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

3953-3959 (7912)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢-$250

Up$25050¢+$250

mo-money

Invested

$460.55

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$39.44

Record

46%

727-841 (1568)

almach

Invested

$455

Value

$500

PnL

+$45

Record

47%

727-821 (1548)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$491.67

Value

—

PnL

-$436.33

Record

42%

423-583 (1006)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$305.26

Value

$486.72

PnL

+$202.47

Record

35%

438-809 (1247)

machinelearned

Invested

$575.36

Value

$476.26

PnL

-$99.1

Record

42%

634-886 (1520)

stepahead

Invested

$462.06

Value

$453.97

PnL

-$8.09

Record

54%

3842-3215 (7057)

blue.birds

Invested

$451.57

Value

$385.95

PnL

-$65.62

Record

52%

3931-3686 (7617)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$304.25

Value

$367.34

PnL

+$63.09

Record

55%

1188-970 (2158)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Down

Invested

$291.24

Value

—

PnL

-$291.24

Record

50%

434-430 (864)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.23

Value

—

PnL

-$73.23

Record

38%

583-966 (1549)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$188.65

Value

$292.6

PnL

+$162.42

Record

53%

4180-3653 (7833)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$283.53

Value

—

PnL

-$283.53

Record

56%

505-402 (907)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$191.28

Value

$235.76

PnL

+$44.48

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

Both legs:

Down$23.9110.8¢-$23.91

Up$167.3771¢+$68.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 56 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa71cdb2a...ef8468

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794472800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

NIULAI4

Down — $0

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Up — $923.16

+$442

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Up — $638.54

+$100.52

ply-pm0

Up — $635.07

-$24.64

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $578.42

+$19.8

CrouchPredictions

Up — $575.11

bosona

Down — $0