Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

15 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Up (47%) · Up at 56¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 12

Up56¢Down44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.7

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 56¢

+5% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 32 top traders (47%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up56%

Down44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,697

Combined PnL-$15.79

Down17 traders

Total Value$632.77

Total Shares1,212

Combined PnL+$15.09

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	-$0.9	56% 90-72 (162)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$406.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$406.98
94 0x949f...14efARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	+$23.28	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$260.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$237.4
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$319.4	$308.81	-$10.58	59% 577-393 (970)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$179.2	$171.25	-$7.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$140.2	$137.56	-$2.64
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$209.19	$211.67	+$2.48	54% 3834-3208 (7042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$117.2	$117.06	-$0.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$91.99	$94.61	+$2.62
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$182.79	$182.39	-$0.4	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$107.6	$112	+$4.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$75.19	$70.39	-$4.8
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$122.44	$130	+$7.56	27% 443-1200 (1643)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$65.74	$67.53	+$1.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.9¢	$56.7	$62.48	+$5.78
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$102.66	$104.9	+$2.24	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$53.16	$53.92	+$0.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$49.5	$50.99	+$1.48
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$73.5	$83.49	+$9.99	41% 391-564 (955)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$74.38	$80.42	+$6.04	50% 3943-3950 (7893)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$77.91	$80.01	+$2.1	35% 435-801 (1236)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$49.48	$52.92	+$3.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$28.43	$27.09	-$1.34
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$77.46	$77.31	-$0.15	48% 411-441 (852)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$78.81	$68.24	-$10.56	42% 627-882 (1509)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$57.29	$68.18	+$10.89	46% 563-662 (1225)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$60.05	$62.41	+$2.36	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$63.4	$57.23	-$6.17	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$58.75	$55.9	-$2.84	50% 428-425 (853)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$53.24	$51.31	-$1.93	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$50.25	$48	-$2.25	55% 1173-958 (2131)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 45¢	$30.11	$37.56	+$7.46	16% 188-972 (1160)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$32.16	$34.63	+$2.47	59% 544-377 (921)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$33.42	$34.55	+$1.14	60% 534-361 (895)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$61.67	$34.1	-$13.2	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 56¢	$33.42	$32.86	-$0.56	49% 378-399 (777)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,741

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

90-72 (162)

Both legs:

Up$4,301.450¢+$406.08

Down$4,205.7650¢-$406.98

0x949f...14efARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$23.28

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$1,777.2350¢+$260.68

Down$1,987.9650¢-$237.4

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$319.4

Value

$308.81

PnL

-$10.58

Record

59%

577-393 (970)

Both legs:

Down$179.246¢-$7.95

Up$140.257.1¢-$2.64

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$209.19

Value

$211.67

PnL

+$2.48

Record

54%

3834-3208 (7042)

Both legs:

Up$117.256.1¢-$0.13

Down$91.9942.8¢+$2.62

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$182.79

Value

$182.39

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

Both legs:

Up$107.653.8¢+$4.4

Down$75.1947¢-$4.8

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$122.44

Value

$130

PnL

+$7.56

Record

27%

443-1200 (1643)

Both legs:

Up$65.7454.5¢+$1.78

Down$56.739.9¢+$5.78

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.66

Value

$104.9

PnL

+$2.24

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

Both legs:

Down$53.1647.8¢+$0.76

Up$49.550¢+$1.48

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$83.49

PnL

+$9.99

Record

41%

391-564 (955)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74.38

Value

$80.42

PnL

+$6.04

Record

50%

3943-3950 (7893)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.91

Value

$80.01

PnL

+$2.1

Record

35%

435-801 (1236)

Both legs:

Down$49.4841.1¢+$3.44

Up$28.4358.8¢-$1.34

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Invested

$77.46

Value

$77.31

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

411-441 (852)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$78.81

Value

$68.24

PnL

-$10.56

Record

42%

627-882 (1509)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.29

Value

$68.18

PnL

+$10.89

Record

46%

563-662 (1225)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.05

Value

$62.41

PnL

+$2.36

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$63.4

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$6.17

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.75

Value

$55.9

PnL

-$2.84

Record

50%

428-425 (853)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.24

Value

$51.31

PnL

-$1.93

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$48

PnL

-$2.25

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$30.11

Value

$37.56

PnL

+$7.46

Record

16%

188-972 (1160)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.16

Value

$34.63

PnL

+$2.47

Record

59%

544-377 (921)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.42

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$1.14

Record

60%

534-361 (895)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.67

Value

$34.1

PnL

-$13.2

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$33.42

Value

$32.86

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

378-399 (777)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 32 top traders (47%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.