Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

44 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$70.48

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 99.5¢

+34% since entry · 44 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

44 of 55 top traders (80%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares10,237

Combined PnL-$307.35

Up44 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,784

Combined PnL+$377.83

Down — 20%Up — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.5K	-$76.03	56% 90-72 (162)
94 0x949f...14efARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	+$40.86	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$979.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$849.66	-$938.75
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.13	99% 473-3 (476)
SU suntori	Upavg 86.9¢	$1.0K	$964.26	+$141.32	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 80¢	$596.05	$525.91	-$64.55	27% 443-1200 (1643)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 74¢	$523.15	$478.09	-$40.26	41% 391-564 (955)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 64.4¢	$311.05	$428.5	+$118.58	59% 577-393 (970)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 87.6¢	$364.47	$414.03	+$49.56	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 69.4¢	$298.14	$338.7	+$40.56	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.1¢	$304.23	$316.86	+$12.63	46% 563-662 (1225)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 46.4¢	$215.79	$262.26	+$46.47	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 68.3¢	$230.92	$225.85	-$5.07	35% 435-801 (1236)
machinelearned	Upavg 55.6¢	$222.28	$214.74	-$7.54	42% 627-882 (1509)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 67.2¢	$253.2	$211.06	-$42.14	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.1¢	$227.84	$206.38	-$21.46	54% 3834-3208 (7042)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$154.57	$202.01	+$47.44	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$97.12	$146.59	+$49.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$57.45	$55.41	-$2.04
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 89.9¢	$257.11	$200.13	-$56.98	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 45.8¢	$116.54	$198.54	+$82	51% 446-434 (880)
DE devonpoll	Upavg 53.1¢	$194.1	$196.04	+$4.05	51% 235-230 (465)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 84.2¢	$165.39	$187.6	+$22.21	59% 544-377 (921)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 93.5¢	$171.36	$164	-$7.36	48% 411-441 (852)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$175.78	$162.73	-$13.05	42% 417-578 (995)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.6¢	$74	$84.99	+$10.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$101.78	$77.74	-$24.04
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 81.1¢	$138.03	$151.38	+$13.35	49% 451-461 (912)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,832

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$76.03

Record

56%

90-72 (162)

0x949f...14efARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$40.86

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$1,441.3350¢+$979.61

Down$1,807.7850¢-$938.75

THG.

Invested

$1,411.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.13

Record

99%

473-3 (476)

suntori

Invested

$1,027.28

Value

$964.26

PnL

+$141.32

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

ply-pm0

Invested

$596.05

Value

$525.91

PnL

-$64.55

Record

27%

443-1200 (1643)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$523.15

Value

$478.09

PnL

-$40.26

Record

41%

391-564 (955)

Bonereaper

Invested

$311.05

Value

$428.5

PnL

+$118.58

Record

59%

577-393 (970)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$364.47

Value

$414.03

PnL

+$49.56

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

blue.birds

Invested

$298.14

Value

$338.7

PnL

+$40.56

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$304.23

Value

$316.86

PnL

+$12.63

Record

46%

563-662 (1225)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$215.79

Value

$262.26

PnL

+$46.47

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$230.92

Value

$225.85

PnL

-$5.07

Record

35%

435-801 (1236)

machinelearned

Invested

$222.28

Value

$214.74

PnL

-$7.54

Record

42%

627-882 (1509)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$253.2

Value

$211.06

PnL

-$42.14

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

stepahead

Invested

$227.84

Value

$206.38

PnL

-$21.46

Record

54%

3834-3208 (7042)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$154.57

Value

$202.01

PnL

+$47.44

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

Both legs:

Up$97.1250.7¢+$49.48

Down$57.4524.4¢-$2.04

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$257.11

Value

$200.13

PnL

-$56.98

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$116.54

Value

$198.54

PnL

+$82

Record

51%

446-434 (880)

devonpoll

Invested

$194.1

Value

$196.04

PnL

+$4.05

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$165.39

Value

$187.6

PnL

+$22.21

Record

59%

544-377 (921)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$171.36

Value

$164

PnL

-$7.36

Record

48%

411-441 (852)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.78

Value

$162.73

PnL

-$13.05

Record

42%

417-578 (995)

Both legs:

Up$7466.6¢+$10.99

Down$101.7830.8¢-$24.04

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$138.03

Value

$151.38

PnL

+$13.35

Record

49%

451-461 (912)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

44 of 55 top traders (80%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.