Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 58%
1 arb excluded
$9.2K
$-11.7K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 55 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.3K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 473-3 (476) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.9K | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 89.6¢ | $840.48 | $814.65 | -$25.34 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 89.1¢ | $871.97 | $615.19 | -$256.78 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.7¢ | $457.53 | $543.57 | +$86.04 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $520.19 | $492.35 | -$7.24 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $256.06 | — | -$255.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $244.73 | $492.35 | +$248.22 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.8¢ | $498.6 | $465.95 | -$32.66 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 34.5¢ | $378.88 | — | -$342.08 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 96.5¢ | $293.76 | $298 | +$4.24 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 53.8¢ | $264.51 | $272.7 | +$8.19 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
SU suntori | Downavg 61¢ | $152.33 | $249.83 | +$97.5 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $153.5 | $185.29 | +$41.83 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97¢ | $177.42 | $182.9 | +$5.49 | 98% 2103-43 (2146) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $138.15 | $185 | +$46.85 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 84.9¢ | $119.7 | $141 | +$21.3 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 59.6¢ | $312.56 | $140.8 | +$43.72 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 36.5¢ | $125.02 | — | -$121.52 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $172.64 | — | -$172.64 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Upavg 35.2¢ | $167.18 | — | -$129.52 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $97.75 | $100 | +$2.25 | 49% 451-461 (912) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $77.01 | $90.57 | +$16.51 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $85.77 | $84.5 | -$1.27 | 51% 446-434 (880) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 53.9¢ | $114.49 | $109.2 | +$47.65 | 58% 526-383 (909) |
Invested
$8,794
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
473-3 (476)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
—
Invested
$840.48
Value
$814.65
PnL
-$25.34
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
machinelearnedInvested
$871.97
Value
$615.19
PnL
-$256.78
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$457.53
Value
$543.57
PnL
+$86.04
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$520.19
Value
$492.35
PnL
-$7.24
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$498.6
Value
$465.95
PnL
-$32.66
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$378.88
Value
—
PnL
-$342.08
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$293.76
Value
$298
PnL
+$4.24
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$264.51
Value
$272.7
PnL
+$8.19
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$152.33
Value
$249.83
PnL
+$97.5
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
Invested
$153.5
Value
$185.29
PnL
+$41.83
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$177.42
Value
$182.9
PnL
+$5.49
Record
98%
2103-43 (2146)
Invested
$138.15
Value
$185
PnL
+$46.85
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$119.7
Value
$141
PnL
+$21.3
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
Invested
$312.56
Value
$140.8
PnL
+$43.72
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Invested
$125.02
Value
—
PnL
-$121.52
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$172.64
Value
—
PnL
-$172.64
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$167.18
Value
—
PnL
-$129.52
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$97.75
Value
$100
PnL
+$2.25
Record
49%
451-461 (912)
Invested
$77.01
Value
$90.57
PnL
+$16.51
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
Invested
$85.77
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$1.27
Record
51%
446-434 (880)
Invested
$114.49
Value
$109.2
PnL
+$47.65
Record
58%
526-383 (909)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x949f...14ef
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $814.65
machinelearned
Down — $615.19
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $543.57
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $465.95
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0