Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 35%
$6.8K
$-10.5K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 55 top traders (35%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.1K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.0K | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 92.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$168.69 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 77.3¢ | $431.12 | $532.19 | +$101.07 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $513.49 | $488.29 | +$7.49 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 64.5¢ | $414.69 | $460.83 | +$46.13 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 84.8¢ | $388.18 | $386.82 | -$1.36 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $233.59 | $221 | -$12.59 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67¢ | $197.1 | $190.22 | -$6.88 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 33.8¢ | $189.73 | — | -$189.73 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 89.3¢ | $174.48 | $185.71 | +$11.23 | 60% 534-361 (895) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 93.2¢ | $157.69 | $169.19 | +$11.5 | 58% 526-383 (909) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $120.48 | $138.88 | +$18.41 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.6¢ | $115.53 | $106.91 | -$8.62 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 50.3¢ | $57.85 | $115 | +$57.15 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $86.29 | $107.93 | +$21.64 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 62.2¢ | $114.5 | $99.98 | -$14.52 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 66.5¢ | $108.34 | $100.75 | -$7.59 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 92¢ | $92 | $100 | +$8 | 74% 910-315 (1225) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $92.68 | $99.6 | +$22.62 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $98.64 | $96.54 | -$2.1 | 48% 411-447 (858) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $71.15 | $89.91 | +$18.76 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 92.1¢ | $152.6 | $80 | -$42.11 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $70.51 | $76.79 | +$6.27 | 49% 451-461 (912) |
Invested
$8,770
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
—
Invested
$2,096.13
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$168.69
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
machinelearnedInvested
$431.12
Value
$532.19
PnL
+$101.07
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$513.49
Value
$488.29
PnL
+$7.49
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$414.69
Value
$460.83
PnL
+$46.13
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$388.18
Value
$386.82
PnL
-$1.36
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$233.59
Value
$221
PnL
-$12.59
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$197.1
Value
$190.22
PnL
-$6.88
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$189.73
Value
—
PnL
-$189.73
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$174.48
Value
$185.71
PnL
+$11.23
Record
60%
534-361 (895)
Invested
$157.69
Value
$169.19
PnL
+$11.5
Record
58%
526-383 (909)
Invested
$120.48
Value
$138.88
PnL
+$18.41
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$115.53
Value
$106.91
PnL
-$8.62
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$57.85
Value
$115
PnL
+$57.15
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
Invested
$86.29
Value
$107.93
PnL
+$21.64
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$114.5
Value
$99.98
PnL
-$14.52
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$108.34
Value
$100.75
PnL
-$7.59
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
BoneOhioInvested
$92
Value
$100
PnL
+$8
Record
74%
910-315 (1225)
Invested
$92.68
Value
$99.6
PnL
+$22.62
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Invested
$98.64
Value
$96.54
PnL
-$2.1
Record
48%
411-447 (858)
Invested
$71.15
Value
$89.91
PnL
+$18.76
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$152.6
Value
$80
PnL
-$42.11
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Invested
$70.51
Value
$76.79
PnL
+$6.27
Record
49%
451-461 (912)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x949f...14ef
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $2.3K
machinelearned
Down — $532.19
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $488.29
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $460.83
blue.birds
Down — $386.82
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $221
stepahead
Down — $190.22