Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 66%
2 arb excluded
$10.0K
$-10.5K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 48 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.0K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 48% 770-848 (1618) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.0K | — |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$25.58 | 99% 473-3 (476) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 91.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$111.3 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $540.4 | $509.95 | +$4.41 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 machinelearned | Downavg 82.1¢ | $445.6 | $542.68 | +$97.08 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $157.82 | $204.9 | +$47.08 | 50% 431-424 (855) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.8¢ | $163.7 | $185.97 | +$22.26 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.2¢ | $132.55 | $170.69 | +$38.14 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $159.28 | $131.19 | -$28.09 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $96.5 | $125 | +$28.5 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $105.35 | $105.29 | -$0.06 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 99.6¢ | $149.21 | $100 | -$49.15 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $84.95 | $94.62 | +$9.66 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 96.7¢ | $101.81 | $95.16 | -$6.65 | 49% 451-461 (912) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 82.6¢ | $85.41 | $103.34 | +$17.93 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $87.07 | $94.23 | +$7.16 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 85¢ | $100.95 | $88 | -$12.95 | 52% 467-426 (893) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $75.38 | $80 | +$4.62 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $56.87 | $70.31 | +$13.44 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $44.45 | $65 | +$20.55 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $74.35 | $84.49 | +$10.13 | 44% 379-482 (861) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62¢ | $52.38 | $84.49 | +$32.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $21.97 | — | -$21.97 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $54.04 | $42.25 | -$11.79 | 48% 411-441 (852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $34.61 | — | -$34.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $19.44 | $42.25 | +$22.82 |
Invested
$8,515
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
48%
770-848 (1618)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
—
Invested
$2,532.12
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.58
Record
99%
473-3 (476)
Invested
$1,180.72
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$111.3
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Invested
$540.4
Value
$509.95
PnL
+$4.41
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
machinelearnedInvested
$445.6
Value
$542.68
PnL
+$97.08
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$157.82
Value
$204.9
PnL
+$47.08
Record
50%
431-424 (855)
Invested
$163.7
Value
$185.97
PnL
+$22.26
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$132.55
Value
$170.69
PnL
+$38.14
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$159.28
Value
$131.19
PnL
-$28.09
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$96.5
Value
$125
PnL
+$28.5
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$105.35
Value
$105.29
PnL
-$0.06
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$149.21
Value
$100
PnL
-$49.15
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$84.95
Value
$94.62
PnL
+$9.66
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$101.81
Value
$95.16
PnL
-$6.65
Record
49%
451-461 (912)
Invested
$85.41
Value
$103.34
PnL
+$17.93
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Invested
$87.07
Value
$94.23
PnL
+$7.16
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
Invested
$100.95
Value
$88
PnL
-$12.95
Record
52%
467-426 (893)
Invested
$75.38
Value
$80
PnL
+$4.62
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$56.87
Value
$70.31
PnL
+$13.44
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
ohioism<$100Invested
$44.45
Value
$65
PnL
+$20.55
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$74.35
Value
$84.49
PnL
+$10.13
Record
44%
379-482 (861)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.04
Value
$42.25
PnL
-$11.79
Record
48%
411-441 (852)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
0x949f...14ef
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
Down — $509.95
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $542.68
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $204.9
stepahead
Down — $185.97