Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Up 39%
3 arb excluded
$5.2K
$-12.3K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 54 top traders (39%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-6.6K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | — |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $506.13 | $540.48 | +$34.36 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $563.79 | $500.32 | +$7 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 77.9¢ | $344.03 | $391.45 | +$47.42 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 39.8¢ | $572.65 | — | -$567.19 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 75.8¢ | $273.17 | $344.41 | +$71.24 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $304.31 | $340.27 | +$35.96 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.4¢ | $198.77 | $340.27 | +$141.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $105.53 | — | -$105.53 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 43.2¢ | $362.58 | — | -$362.58 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.6¢ | $196.58 | $226.99 | +$30.41 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88¢ | $210.59 | $217.78 | +$7.19 | 49% 451-461 (912) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 80.6¢ | $195.4 | $217.71 | +$22.3 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $167.55 | $187.53 | +$19.98 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $106.14 | $187.53 | +$81.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.1¢ | $61.41 | — | -$61.41 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 82.8¢ | $181.92 | $173.79 | -$8.12 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 87.8¢ | $142.95 | $162.75 | +$19.8 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $167.29 | $161.69 | -$5.6 | 48% 411-441 (852) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 71.5¢ | $189.46 | $154.45 | -$35.01 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $153.29 | $132.03 | -$21.26 | 50% 428-425 (853) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 79.6¢ | $166.88 | $132.61 | +$5.73 | 60% 534-361 (895) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 74.2¢ | $113.9 | $126.33 | +$12.43 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 32¢ | $190.31 | — | -$165.39 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $99.74 | $102.36 | +$2.62 | 48% 411-447 (858) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 97¢ | $97 | $100 | +$3 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 71.4¢ | $87.38 | $102.82 | +$15.44 | 53% 4175-3648 (7823) |
Invested
$8,877
Value
—
PnL
$-6.6K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
—
Invested
$506.13
Value
$540.48
PnL
+$34.36
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$563.79
Value
$500.32
PnL
+$7
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$344.03
Value
$391.45
PnL
+$47.42
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$572.65
Value
—
PnL
-$567.19
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
machinelearnedInvested
$273.17
Value
$344.41
PnL
+$71.24
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$304.31
Value
$340.27
PnL
+$35.96
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Both legs:
Invested
$362.58
Value
—
PnL
-$362.58
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Invested
$196.58
Value
$226.99
PnL
+$30.41
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$210.59
Value
$217.78
PnL
+$7.19
Record
49%
451-461 (912)
Invested
$195.4
Value
$217.71
PnL
+$22.3
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$167.55
Value
$187.53
PnL
+$19.98
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Both legs:
Invested
$181.92
Value
$173.79
PnL
-$8.12
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Invested
$142.95
Value
$162.75
PnL
+$19.8
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$167.29
Value
$161.69
PnL
-$5.6
Record
48%
411-441 (852)
Invested
$189.46
Value
$154.45
PnL
-$35.01
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Invested
$153.29
Value
$132.03
PnL
-$21.26
Record
50%
428-425 (853)
Invested
$166.88
Value
$132.61
PnL
+$5.73
Record
60%
534-361 (895)
Invested
$113.9
Value
$126.33
PnL
+$12.43
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$190.31
Value
—
PnL
-$165.39
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$99.74
Value
$102.36
PnL
+$2.62
Record
48%
411-447 (858)
Invested
$97
Value
$100
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
FairValueMachineInvested
$87.38
Value
$102.82
PnL
+$15.44
Record
53%
4175-3648 (7823)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x949f...14ef
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $540.48
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.32
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $391.45
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $344.41
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0