Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Down 45%
5 arb excluded
$10.8K
$-10.1K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 53 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.1K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 473-3 (476) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.4K | — |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 52.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$43.09 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 72¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 53.8¢ | $512.52 | $579.89 | +$67.37 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
AL almach | Upavg 28.5¢ | $180.83 | $511.17 | +$330.34 | 47% 716-816 (1532) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $561.73 | $497.41 | -$15.64 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 28.9¢ | $133.17 | $368.44 | +$235.27 | 46% 718-833 (1551) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $390.65 | $358 | -$32.65 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.3¢ | $268.63 | $278.56 | +$9.93 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 22.2¢ | $278.2 | — | -$278.2 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 50.2¢ | $242.34 | $271.72 | +$37.22 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
BO bosona | Upavg 28.9¢ | $96.41 | $268.16 | +$171.75 | 50% 3943-3950 (7893) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 54.7¢ | $214.66 | $236.38 | +$21.72 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66.5¢ | $197.91 | $229.08 | +$31.17 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 79.1¢ | $217.17 | $234.14 | +$16.96 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $207.41 | $183.44 | -$23.97 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.4¢ | $87.03 | $183.44 | +$96.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $120.39 | — | -$120.39 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 35¢ | $157.71 | — | -$157.71 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 66¢ | $93.32 | $132 | +$38.68 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 37.4¢ | $53.9 | $131.27 | +$77.37 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $57.37 | $99.99 | +$42.62 | 44% 379-482 (861) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $91.85 | $83.34 | -$8.51 | 52% 527-487 (1014) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $42.8 | $83.34 | +$40.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $49.05 | — | -$49.05 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.4¢ | $78.94 | $115.82 | +$36.88 | 48% 411-441 (852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.4¢ | $50.21 | $115.82 | +$65.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $28.73 | — | -$28.73 |
Invested
$8,967
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
473-3 (476)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
—
Invested
$1,175.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$43.09
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Invested
$1,093.29
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$512.52
Value
$579.89
PnL
+$67.37
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$180.83
Value
$511.17
PnL
+$330.34
Record
47%
716-816 (1532)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$561.73
Value
$497.41
PnL
-$15.64
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$133.17
Value
$368.44
PnL
+$235.27
Record
46%
718-833 (1551)
Invested
$390.65
Value
$358
PnL
-$32.65
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$268.63
Value
$278.56
PnL
+$9.93
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$278.2
Value
—
PnL
-$278.2
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$242.34
Value
$271.72
PnL
+$37.22
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$96.41
Value
$268.16
PnL
+$171.75
Record
50%
3943-3950 (7893)
Invested
$214.66
Value
$236.38
PnL
+$21.72
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$197.91
Value
$229.08
PnL
+$31.17
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
machinelearnedInvested
$217.17
Value
$234.14
PnL
+$16.96
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$207.41
Value
$183.44
PnL
-$23.97
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$157.71
Value
—
PnL
-$157.71
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$93.32
Value
$132
PnL
+$38.68
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
Invested
$53.9
Value
$131.27
PnL
+$77.37
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$57.37
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$42.62
Record
44%
379-482 (861)
Invested
$91.85
Value
$83.34
PnL
-$8.51
Record
52%
527-487 (1014)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.94
Value
$115.82
PnL
+$36.88
Record
48%
411-441 (852)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
0x949f...14ef
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $579.89
almach
Up — $511.17
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $497.41
mo-money
Up — $368.44