Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$9.5K
$-11.0K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 51 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.1K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 473-3 (476) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.1K | — |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 83.1¢ | $577.96 | $485.6 | -$92.36 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $594.38 | $487.48 | -$21.2 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.1¢ | $387.31 | $438.94 | +$51.64 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.4¢ | $382.56 | $432.9 | +$50.34 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $385.96 | $371.99 | -$13.97 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 83.5¢ | $384.74 | $353.29 | -$31.45 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $203.5 | $318.99 | +$115.49 | 50% 433-432 (865) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 71.8¢ | $187.47 | $260.93 | +$73.46 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 70.2¢ | $276.54 | $234.56 | -$41.98 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.2¢ | $219.89 | $215.56 | -$4.32 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $175.55 | $201.14 | +$25.58 | 44% 379-482 (861) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $135.7 | $190.3 | +$54.6 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 64¢ | $112.33 | $169 | +$56.67 | 50% 428-425 (853) |
DE devonpollCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$167.4 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 76.9¢ | $131.96 | $138.89 | +$6.93 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 73.8¢ | $117.91 | $122.46 | +$4.55 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 70.1¢ | $111.51 | $152.83 | +$41.32 | 60% 534-361 (895) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 84.9¢ | $146.24 | $110 | -$36.24 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 67.3¢ | $73.67 | $108.28 | +$34.61 | 58% 526-383 (909) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $68.35 | $87.4 | +$19.05 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 21.3¢ | $87.86 | $50 | -$37.86 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $50 | +$7.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.3¢ | $45.36 | — | -$45.36 |
Invested
$8,903
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
473-3 (476)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$577.96
Value
$485.6
PnL
-$92.36
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$594.38
Value
$487.48
PnL
-$21.2
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$387.31
Value
$438.94
PnL
+$51.64
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
machinelearnedInvested
$382.56
Value
$432.9
PnL
+$50.34
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$385.96
Value
$371.99
PnL
-$13.97
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$384.74
Value
$353.29
PnL
-$31.45
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$203.5
Value
$318.99
PnL
+$115.49
Record
50%
433-432 (865)
Invested
$187.47
Value
$260.93
PnL
+$73.46
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$276.54
Value
$234.56
PnL
-$41.98
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$219.89
Value
$215.56
PnL
-$4.32
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$175.55
Value
$201.14
PnL
+$25.58
Record
44%
379-482 (861)
Invested
$135.7
Value
$190.3
PnL
+$54.6
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$112.33
Value
$169
PnL
+$56.67
Record
50%
428-425 (853)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$167.4
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$131.96
Value
$138.89
PnL
+$6.93
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Invested
$117.91
Value
$122.46
PnL
+$4.55
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$111.51
Value
$152.83
PnL
+$41.32
Record
60%
534-361 (895)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$146.24
Value
$110
PnL
-$36.24
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$73.67
Value
$108.28
PnL
+$34.61
Record
58%
526-383 (909)
Invested
$68.35
Value
$87.4
PnL
+$19.05
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
Invested
$87.86
Value
$50
PnL
-$37.86
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
0x949f...14ef
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $485.6
ByteBadger92
Up — $487.48
Bonereaper
Up — $438.94
machinelearned
Up — $432.9
ply-pm0
Up — $371.99
CrouchPredictions
Up — $353.29