Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Up 69%
7 arb excluded
$13.2K
$-8.8K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 48 top traders (69%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.7K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
94 0x949f...14ef | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$53.21 | — |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$15.73 | 99% 473-3 (476) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 54.8¢ | $962.32 | $1.2K | +$221.37 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 58.2¢ | $713.67 | $651.59 | +$25.92 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 55.2¢ | $519.06 | $632.97 | +$128.71 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 52.4¢ | $611.9 | — | -$516 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66¢ | $570.92 | $494.55 | -$76.37 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 68¢ | $326.15 | $407.31 | +$81.16 | 44% 379-482 (861) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 59.2¢ | $311.91 | $379.32 | +$67.41 | 53% 4175-3648 (7823) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 52.6¢ | $293.53 | $301.52 | +$7.99 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.3¢ | $376.99 | $301.64 | -$74.35 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $336.76 | $263.13 | -$73.63 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $135.16 | $263.13 | +$127.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.8¢ | $201.6 | — | -$201.6 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 42.3¢ | $668.05 | — | -$668.05 | 50% 433-432 (865) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $175.26 | $223.19 | +$47.94 | 50% 428-425 (853) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 51.3¢ | $268.24 | — | -$268.24 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 45.3¢ | $174.67 | $214.35 | +$39.68 | 55% 497-399 (896) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $186.3 | $196.15 | +$9.85 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.1¢ | $96.3 | $196.15 | +$99.85 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 46.4¢ | $160.68 | $189.07 | +$28.39 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.4¢ | $87.82 | $189.07 | +$101.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $72.87 | — | -$72.87 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 66.7¢ | $153.88 | $183.72 | +$36.88 | 58% 526-383 (909) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $147.37 | $149.86 | +$2.49 | 50% 431-424 (855) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 82.4¢ | $124.44 | $142.98 | +$18.54 | 52% 467-426 (893) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $134.16 | $150 | +$15.84 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 54.1¢ | $133.81 | $135.89 | +$32.85 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
Invested
$8,637
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$53.21
Record
—
Invested
$1,557.44
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.73
Record
99%
473-3 (476)
Invested
$962.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$221.37
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$713.67
Value
$651.59
PnL
+$25.92
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$519.06
Value
$632.97
PnL
+$128.71
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$611.9
Value
—
PnL
-$516
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$570.92
Value
$494.55
PnL
-$76.37
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$326.15
Value
$407.31
PnL
+$81.16
Record
44%
379-482 (861)
FairValueMachineInvested
$311.91
Value
$379.32
PnL
+$67.41
Record
53%
4175-3648 (7823)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$293.53
Value
$301.52
PnL
+$7.99
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$376.99
Value
$301.64
PnL
-$74.35
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$336.76
Value
$263.13
PnL
-$73.63
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Both legs:
Invested
$668.05
Value
—
PnL
-$668.05
Record
50%
433-432 (865)
Invested
$175.26
Value
$223.19
PnL
+$47.94
Record
50%
428-425 (853)
Invested
$268.24
Value
—
PnL
-$268.24
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$174.67
Value
$214.35
PnL
+$39.68
Record
55%
497-399 (896)
Invested
$186.3
Value
$196.15
PnL
+$9.85
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$160.68
Value
$189.07
PnL
+$28.39
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.88
Value
$183.72
PnL
+$36.88
Record
58%
526-383 (909)
Invested
$147.37
Value
$149.86
PnL
+$2.49
Record
50%
431-424 (855)
Invested
$124.44
Value
$142.98
PnL
+$18.54
Record
52%
467-426 (893)
Invested
$134.16
Value
$150
PnL
+$15.84
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$133.81
Value
$135.89
PnL
+$32.85
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
0x949f...14ef
Up — $3.6K
THG.
Up — $1.6K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.2K
blue.birds
Up — $651.59
GoodFallen
Up — $632.97
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $494.55
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Up — $407.31