Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
48
Down 31%
2 arb excluded
$7.7K
$-10.8K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 48 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.0K | 56% 90-72 (162) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 92.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$247.44 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | — |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $509.15 | $492.26 | +$8.74 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $399.76 | $777.99 | +$378.22 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 83¢ | $257.17 | $309.8 | +$52.63 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $208.91 | $235.26 | +$26.34 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 80.5¢ | $176.55 | $165 | -$11.55 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
DE devonpollCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$165.15 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 72.9¢ | $172 | $153.25 | -$17.43 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 82.4¢ | $127.21 | $144.81 | +$17.6 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $125.14 | $113.32 | -$11.82 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.6¢ | $60.79 | $113.32 | +$52.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $64.35 | — | -$64.35 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.1¢ | $150.37 | $100 | -$50.37 | 48% 411-447 (858) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $49 | $100 | +$51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.1¢ | $101.37 | — | -$101.37 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 84.4¢ | $117.78 | $123.9 | +$6.12 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 76.1¢ | $119.11 | $98.77 | -$20.34 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 66.4¢ | $90.08 | $135.73 | +$45.65 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $78.59 | $84.5 | +$5.92 | 50% 431-424 (855) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $81.97 | $84.5 | +$2.53 | 48% 411-441 (852) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $74.5 | $75 | +$5.5 | 58% 526-383 (909) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $49.12 | $67.37 | +$18.25 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 92.5¢ | $64.75 | $70 | +$5.25 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $55.13 | $58.33 | +$3.2 | 60% 534-361 (895) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 94.1¢ | $66.8 | $57.73 | +$2.48 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
Invested
$8,538
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$3,006.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$247.44
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$509.15
Value
$492.26
PnL
+$8.74
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$399.76
Value
$777.99
PnL
+$378.22
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$257.17
Value
$309.8
PnL
+$52.63
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$208.91
Value
$235.26
PnL
+$26.34
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
Invested
$176.55
Value
$165
PnL
-$11.55
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$165.15
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$172
Value
$153.25
PnL
-$17.43
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Invested
$127.21
Value
$144.81
PnL
+$17.6
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$125.14
Value
$113.32
PnL
-$11.82
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.37
Value
$100
PnL
-$50.37
Record
48%
411-447 (858)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.78
Value
$123.9
PnL
+$6.12
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$119.11
Value
$98.77
PnL
-$20.34
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$90.08
Value
$135.73
PnL
+$45.65
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$78.59
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$5.92
Record
50%
431-424 (855)
Invested
$81.97
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$2.53
Record
48%
411-441 (852)
Invested
$74.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$5.5
Record
58%
526-383 (909)
Invested
$49.12
Value
$67.37
PnL
+$18.25
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
ohioism<$100Invested
$64.75
Value
$70
PnL
+$5.25
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$55.13
Value
$58.33
PnL
+$3.2
Record
60%
534-361 (895)
Invested
$66.8
Value
$57.73
PnL
+$2.48
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $3.3K
0x949f...14ef
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $492.26
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $777.99
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $309.8
ply-pm0
Up — $235.26
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $165
devonpoll
CTRDown — $0