Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
44
Down 67%
5 arb excluded
$13.8K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 44 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $7.3K | +$18.79 | 56% 90-72 (162) |
94 0x949f...14efCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 95.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$73.63 | 59% 577-393 (970) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $526.78 | $510.31 | +$3.35 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $257.24 | $510.31 | +$253.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $246.42 | — | -$250.41 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $407.35 | $337.99 | -$69.36 | 48% 411-447 (858) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 82.5¢ | $108.98 | $79.42 | -$29.56 | 46% 563-662 (1225) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $236.43 | $233.95 | -$2.49 | 27% 443-1200 (1643) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $173.34 | $176.74 | +$3.39 | 35% 435-801 (1236) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $53.29 | — | -$53.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.9¢ | $120.06 | $176.74 | +$56.68 | |
AL almach | Downavg 99.9¢ | $187.12 | $181.85 | -$5.27 | 47% 716-816 (1532) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.3¢ | $183.58 | $179.37 | -$4.2 | 46% 718-833 (1551) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $126.1 | $170.63 | +$44.53 | 55% 1173-958 (2131) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 31.8¢ | $121.17 | $91.85 | -$29.32 | 41% 391-564 (955) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.8¢ | $77.54 | — | -$77.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $43.64 | $91.85 | +$48.21 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 99.9¢ | $168.38 | $153.95 | -$14.43 | 50% 3943-3950 (7893) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $122.63 | $139.42 | +$16.78 | 48% 411-441 (852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38¢ | $61.29 | — | -$61.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $61.34 | $139.42 | +$78.07 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.5¢ | $116.07 | $129.53 | +$13.46 | 54% 3834-3208 (7042) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.7¢ | $126.81 | $116.74 | -$10.07 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93¢ | $108.18 | $116.34 | +$8.16 | 42% 627-882 (1509) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 61.5¢ | $127.97 | $199.99 | +$72.03 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $96.44 | $92.46 | -$3.98 | 49% 451-461 (912) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 74.5¢ | $159.84 | $95.4 | +$11.46 | 59% 544-377 (921) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 49¢ | $78.56 | $155 | +$76.43 | 42% 417-578 (995) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $77.08 | — | -$77.08 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $27.6 | $60 | +$32.4 | 53% 4175-3648 (7823) |
Invested
$8,922
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$18.79
Record
56%
90-72 (162)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
—
Invested
$2,800.14
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$73.63
Record
59%
577-393 (970)
Invested
$526.78
Value
$510.31
PnL
+$3.35
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$407.35
Value
$337.99
PnL
-$69.36
Record
48%
411-447 (858)
Invested
$108.98
Value
$79.42
PnL
-$29.56
Record
46%
563-662 (1225)
Invested
$236.43
Value
$233.95
PnL
-$2.49
Record
27%
443-1200 (1643)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$173.34
Value
$176.74
PnL
+$3.39
Record
35%
435-801 (1236)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.12
Value
$181.85
PnL
-$5.27
Record
47%
716-816 (1532)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$183.58
Value
$179.37
PnL
-$4.2
Record
46%
718-833 (1551)
Invested
$126.1
Value
$170.63
PnL
+$44.53
Record
55%
1173-958 (2131)
Invested
$121.17
Value
$91.85
PnL
-$29.32
Record
41%
391-564 (955)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.38
Value
$153.95
PnL
-$14.43
Record
50%
3943-3950 (7893)
Invested
$122.63
Value
$139.42
PnL
+$16.78
Record
48%
411-441 (852)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.07
Value
$129.53
PnL
+$13.46
Record
54%
3834-3208 (7042)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$126.81
Value
$116.74
PnL
-$10.07
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
machinelearnedInvested
$108.18
Value
$116.34
PnL
+$8.16
Record
42%
627-882 (1509)
Invested
$127.97
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$72.03
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$96.44
Value
$92.46
PnL
-$3.98
Record
49%
451-461 (912)
Invested
$159.84
Value
$95.4
PnL
+$11.46
Record
59%
544-377 (921)
Invested
$78.56
Value
$155
PnL
+$76.43
Record
42%
417-578 (995)
Invested
$77.08
Value
—
PnL
-$77.08
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$27.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$32.4
Record
53%
4175-3648 (7823)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.3K
0x949f...14ef
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $2.9K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877
Down — $337.99
CrouchPredictions
Down — $79.42
ply-pm0
Down — $233.95
x-MoneyForWhiskas
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $181.85