Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

32 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$533.12

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

32 of 58 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,375

Combined PnL-$136.57

Down26 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,533

Combined PnL-$396.55

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$265.25	48% 1024-1120 (2144)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$11.45	99% 463-3 (466)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 86.3¢	$541.42	$568.12	+$26.7	48% 402-435 (837)
ST stepahead	Upavg 68.9¢	$488.39	$535.92	+$47.53	54% 3817-3196 (7013)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$583.62	$489.79	-$2.03	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 45.5¢	$649.94	$417.73	-$215.88	59% 562-384 (946)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.7¢	$420.52	$394.61	-$25.91	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 35.6¢	$408.6	$381	-$27.6	41% 383-551 (934)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 75.6¢	$459	$340.62	-$118.37	46% 550-646 (1196)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.1¢	$369.42	$306.15	-$63.28	42% 407-568 (975)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.7¢	$180.38	$245.28	+$67.75	52% 466-426 (892)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 53.5¢	$241.68	$243.2	+$1.52	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 87.6¢	$306.05	$239.34	-$66.71	56% 497-398 (895)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 47.4¢	$225.29	$225.67	+$0.38	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 30¢	$150	$222.5	+$72.5	47% 700-792 (1492)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 30¢	$150	$222.5	+$72.5	50% 3925-3931 (7856)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 66.5¢	$225.07	$204.38	-$20.69	50% 421-413 (834)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 32.5¢	$145.11	$198.95	+$53.84	46% 699-813 (1512)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 75.2¢	$221.52	$198.21	-$7.15	67% 1947-979 (2926)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 64.5¢	$148.05	$188.7	+$45.33	59% 531-369 (900)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$170.63	-$0.38	50% 216-217 (433)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$82.5	$103.13	+$22.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$67.5	-$22.5
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$155.57	$158.07	+$2.5	44% 370-469 (839)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$85.66	$91.91	+$6.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$69.91	$66.16	-$3.75
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 57¢	$84.58	$148.31	+$63.73	48% 339-364 (703)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 54.7¢	$129.92	$121.86	-$8.06	35% 423-791 (1214)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$3,184.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$265.25

Record

48%

1024-1120 (2144)

THG.

Invested

$2,266.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$11.45

Record

99%

463-3 (466)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$541.42

Value

$568.12

PnL

+$26.7

Record

48%

402-435 (837)

stepahead

Invested

$488.39

Value

$535.92

PnL

+$47.53

Record

54%

3817-3196 (7013)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$583.62

Value

$489.79

PnL

-$2.03

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$649.94

Value

$417.73

PnL

-$215.88

Record

59%

562-384 (946)

blue.birds

Invested

$420.52

Value

$394.61

PnL

-$25.91

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$408.6

Value

$381

PnL

-$27.6

Record

41%

383-551 (934)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$459

Value

$340.62

PnL

-$118.37

Record

46%

550-646 (1196)

GoodFallen

Invested

$369.42

Value

$306.15

PnL

-$63.28

Record

42%

407-568 (975)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$180.38

Value

$245.28

PnL

+$67.75

Record

52%

466-426 (892)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$241.68

Value

$243.2

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$306.05

Value

$239.34

PnL

-$66.71

Record

56%

497-398 (895)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$225.29

Value

$225.67

PnL

+$0.38

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$72.5

Record

47%

700-792 (1492)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$72.5

Record

50%

3925-3931 (7856)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$225.07

Value

$204.38

PnL

-$20.69

Record

50%

421-413 (834)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$145.11

Value

$198.95

PnL

+$53.84

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

asdaefef

Invested

$221.52

Value

$198.21

PnL

-$7.15

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$148.05

Value

$188.7

PnL

+$45.33

Record

59%

531-369 (900)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$170.63

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

Both legs:

Up$82.550¢+$22.13

Down$9050¢-$22.5

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$155.57

Value

$158.07

PnL

+$2.5

Record

44%

370-469 (839)

Both legs:

Up$85.6655.5¢+$6.25

Down$69.9142.8¢-$3.75

seeeeeeb

Invested

$84.58

Value

$148.31

PnL

+$63.73

Record

48%

339-364 (703)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$129.92

Value

$121.86

PnL

-$8.06

Record

35%

423-791 (1214)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

32 of 58 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.