Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$473.99
Smart Money Signal
30 of 45 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 880-306 (1186) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 86.3¢ | $969.79 | $1.0K | +$40.93 | 59% 562-384 (946) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $561.47 | $499.24 | +$17.33 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $156.58 | $194.28 | +$37.7 | 44% 370-469 (839) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $184.41 | $181.41 | +$14.08 | 27% 434-1187 (1621) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $176.5 | $176.68 | +$0.18 | 48% 754-833 (1587) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $166.32 | $168 | +$1.68 | 98% 2083-42 (2125) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 36.1¢ | $133.34 | — | -$133.34 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.9¢ | $130.5 | $117.67 | -$12.83 | 46% 699-813 (1512) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 85.3¢ | $117.39 | $102.87 | -$14.52 | 35% 423-791 (1214) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $88.8 | $94.48 | +$6.58 | 55% 1146-933 (2079) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $75.53 | $92.71 | +$17.18 | 67% 1947-979 (2926) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $71.04 | $72 | +$0.96 | 60% 524-352 (876) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $64.3 | $69.06 | +$4.76 | 59% 531-369 (900) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $43.36 | $96.36 | +$53 | 48% 1024-1120 (2144) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $82.82 | $62.52 | -$20.3 | 54% 3817-3196 (7013) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $42.95 | $67.03 | +$24.08 | 53% 554-495 (1049) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $62.41 | $60.86 | -$1.55 | 49% 440-450 (890) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 80.7¢ | $49.69 | $59.99 | +$10.3 | 42% 407-568 (975) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $48.19 | $40.37 | -$7.81 | 49% 405-427 (832) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.8¢ | $24.53 | $40.37 | +$15.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28¢ | $23.66 | — | -$23.66 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $36.88 | $53.23 | +$16.36 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $27.81 | $44.14 | +$16.33 | 50% 3925-3931 (7856) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $36.33 | $40.95 | +$4.62 | 53% 4165-3638 (7803) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $27.6 | $40.26 | +$12.66 | 52% 519-475 (994) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
880-306 (1186)
Invested
$969.79
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$40.93
Record
59%
562-384 (946)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$561.47
Value
$499.24
PnL
+$17.33
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Invested
$156.58
Value
$194.28
PnL
+$37.7
Record
44%
370-469 (839)
Invested
$184.41
Value
$181.41
PnL
+$14.08
Record
27%
434-1187 (1621)
Invested
$176.5
Value
$176.68
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
754-833 (1587)
Invested
$166.32
Value
$168
PnL
+$1.68
Record
98%
2083-42 (2125)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$133.34
Value
—
PnL
-$133.34
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$130.5
Value
$117.67
PnL
-$12.83
Record
46%
699-813 (1512)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$117.39
Value
$102.87
PnL
-$14.52
Record
35%
423-791 (1214)
Invested
$88.8
Value
$94.48
PnL
+$6.58
Record
55%
1146-933 (2079)
Invested
$75.53
Value
$92.71
PnL
+$17.18
Record
67%
1947-979 (2926)
Invested
$71.04
Value
$72
PnL
+$0.96
Record
60%
524-352 (876)
Invested
$64.3
Value
$69.06
PnL
+$4.76
Record
59%
531-369 (900)
Invested
$43.36
Value
$96.36
PnL
+$53
Record
48%
1024-1120 (2144)
Invested
$82.82
Value
$62.52
PnL
-$20.3
Record
54%
3817-3196 (7013)
Invested
$42.95
Value
$67.03
PnL
+$24.08
Record
53%
554-495 (1049)
Invested
$62.41
Value
$60.86
PnL
-$1.55
Record
49%
440-450 (890)
Invested
$49.69
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$10.3
Record
42%
407-568 (975)
Invested
$48.19
Value
$40.37
PnL
-$7.81
Record
49%
405-427 (832)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.88
Value
$53.23
PnL
+$16.36
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Invested
$27.81
Value
$44.14
PnL
+$16.33
Record
50%
3925-3931 (7856)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$36.33
Value
$40.95
PnL
+$4.62
Record
53%
4165-3638 (7803)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$40.26
PnL
+$12.66
Record
52%
519-475 (994)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $499.24
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Down — $194.28
ply-pm0
Down — $181.41
0x50f7
Down — $176.68
hoodquant
Down — $168
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $117.67