Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 58%
6 arb excluded
$14.9K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 54 top traders (59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 463-3 (466) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 50% 1015-1025 (2040) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$148.1 | 46% 550-646 (1196) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 83.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$30.81 | 59% 562-384 (946) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 59.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$15.9 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $704.14 | — | -$704.14 | 48% 1024-1120 (2144) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $821.04 | $848.41 | +$27.37 | 27% 434-1187 (1621) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 51.7¢ | $555.52 | $787.82 | +$249.51 | 41% 383-551 (934) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 37.7¢ | $2.2K | — | $-1.4K | 22% 209-752 (961) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.2¢ | $592.63 | $615.71 | +$23.08 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $583.85 | $507.28 | +$11.28 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 58¢ | $307.74 | $502.56 | +$202.84 | 55% 1146-933 (2079) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $454.99 | $393.49 | -$61.5 | 54% 3817-3196 (7013) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $288.58 | — | -$288.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.3¢ | $166.4 | $393.49 | +$227.08 | |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR | Upavg 38.4¢ | $685.07 | — | -$573.9 | 20% 65-257 (322) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 56.8¢ | $409.01 | $417.98 | +$8.97 | 42% 407-568 (975) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 49.3¢ | $472.03 | — | -$472.03 | 35% 423-791 (1214) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 94.2¢ | $388.56 | $366.5 | -$22.06 | 52% 519-475 (994) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 65¢ | $279.93 | $298.28 | +$18.35 | 51% 1422-1352 (2774) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Downavg 40.9¢ | $223.55 | $357.79 | +$134.23 | 53% 554-495 (1049) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.9¢ | $146.29 | $357.79 | +$211.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.3¢ | $77.26 | — | -$77.26 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 53.7¢ | $1.3K | $250 | -$12.34 | 50% 3925-3931 (7856) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $178.85 | $258.63 | +$79.78 | 51% 434-424 (858) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $225.24 | — | -$225.24 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $192.93 | $210.3 | +$17.37 | 49% 440-450 (890) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Upavg 42.1¢ | $202.49 | — | -$198.66 | 47% 823-928 (1751) |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
463-3 (466)
Invested
$1,938.48
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
50%
1015-1025 (2040)
Invested
$1,378
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$148.1
Record
46%
550-646 (1196)
Invested
$1,291.53
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$30.81
Record
59%
562-384 (946)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,119.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$15.9
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$704.14
Value
—
PnL
-$704.14
Record
48%
1024-1120 (2144)
Invested
$821.04
Value
$848.41
PnL
+$27.37
Record
27%
434-1187 (1621)
Invested
$555.52
Value
$787.82
PnL
+$249.51
Record
41%
383-551 (934)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$2,248.04
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
22%
209-752 (961)
Invested
$592.63
Value
$615.71
PnL
+$23.08
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
Invested
$583.85
Value
$507.28
PnL
+$11.28
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Invested
$307.74
Value
$502.56
PnL
+$202.84
Record
55%
1146-933 (2079)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$454.99
Value
$393.49
PnL
-$61.5
Record
54%
3817-3196 (7013)
Both legs:
Invested
$685.07
Value
—
PnL
-$573.9
Record
20%
65-257 (322)
Invested
$409.01
Value
$417.98
PnL
+$8.97
Record
42%
407-568 (975)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$472.03
Value
—
PnL
-$472.03
Record
35%
423-791 (1214)
Invested
$388.56
Value
$366.5
PnL
-$22.06
Record
52%
519-475 (994)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$279.93
Value
$298.28
PnL
+$18.35
Record
51%
1422-1352 (2774)
Invested
$223.55
Value
$357.79
PnL
+$134.23
Record
53%
554-495 (1049)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,276.19
Value
$250
PnL
-$12.34
Record
50%
3925-3931 (7856)
Invested
$178.85
Value
$258.63
PnL
+$79.78
Record
51%
434-424 (858)
Invested
$225.24
Value
—
PnL
-$225.24
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$192.93
Value
$210.3
PnL
+$17.37
Record
49%
440-450 (890)
Invested
$202.49
Value
—
PnL
-$198.66
Record
47%
823-928 (1751)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $3.5K
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.3K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $1.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $848.41
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $787.82
Atomforge
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $615.71