Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Up 67%
4 arb excluded
$16.9K
$1.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 54 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 463-3 (466) |
BO borderlocket | Upavg 62.2¢ | $1.9K | $3.1K | +$1.2K | 27% 50-135 (185) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 61.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$621.91 | 22% 209-752 (961) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$77.76 | 59% 562-384 (946) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $627.44 | $602.85 | -$23.07 | 27% 434-1187 (1621) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 63.7¢ | $488.09 | $593.46 | +$105.37 | 46% 699-813 (1512) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $617.3 | $527.99 | -$89.3 | 46% 550-646 (1196) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.6¢ | $314.55 | $527.99 | +$213.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.6¢ | $302.75 | — | -$302.75 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 64.2¢ | $394.36 | $551.96 | +$157.6 | 50% 3925-3931 (7856) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53¢ | $576.1 | $496.99 | -$4 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
AL almach | Upavg 64.9¢ | $719.02 | $492.75 | +$172.96 | 47% 700-792 (1492) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.1¢ | $419.9 | $441.77 | +$21.87 | 54% 3817-3196 (7013) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.8¢ | $288.15 | $347.92 | +$69.77 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 38.4¢ | $413.75 | — | -$413.75 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 63.4¢ | $194.12 | $306.26 | +$112.14 | 20% 65-257 (322) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $283.03 | $285.83 | +$2.8 | 35% 423-791 (1214) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $185.89 | $285.83 | +$99.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.2¢ | $97.14 | — | -$97.14 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 81.6¢ | $394.35 | $264.63 | -$127.64 | 41% 383-551 (934) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $222.99 | $224.99 | +$2 | 49% 440-450 (890) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 65.3¢ | $196 | $300 | +$104 | 41% 615-871 (1486) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $183.78 | — | -$183.78 | 42% 407-568 (975) |
0X 0x8edb6bc0E3bD8455B952d59d367BD2D8Bc5499DF-1779888578794ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $150 | $150 | +$33 | — 9-8 (17) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $75.75 | $150 | +$74.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $37.13 | — | -$41.25 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 64¢ | $108.15 | $168.99 | +$60.84 | 44% 370-469 (839) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.3¢ | $110 | $101.4 | -$3.85 | 52% 519-475 (994) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $124.6 | $93.41 | -$28.79 | 55% 1146-933 (2079) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 77.7¢ | $107.63 | $87.88 | -$19.75 | 53% 4165-3638 (7803) |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
463-3 (466)
Invested
$1,906.72
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
27%
50-135 (185)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,003.15
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$621.91
Record
22%
209-752 (961)
Invested
$1,363.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$77.76
Record
59%
562-384 (946)
Invested
$627.44
Value
$602.85
PnL
-$23.07
Record
27%
434-1187 (1621)
Invested
$488.09
Value
$593.46
PnL
+$105.37
Record
46%
699-813 (1512)
Invested
$617.3
Value
$527.99
PnL
-$89.3
Record
46%
550-646 (1196)
Both legs:
Invested
$394.36
Value
$551.96
PnL
+$157.6
Record
50%
3925-3931 (7856)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$576.1
Value
$496.99
PnL
-$4
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Invested
$719.02
Value
$492.75
PnL
+$172.96
Record
47%
700-792 (1492)
Invested
$419.9
Value
$441.77
PnL
+$21.87
Record
54%
3817-3196 (7013)
Invested
$288.15
Value
$347.92
PnL
+$69.77
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$413.75
Value
—
PnL
-$413.75
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$194.12
Value
$306.26
PnL
+$112.14
Record
20%
65-257 (322)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$283.03
Value
$285.83
PnL
+$2.8
Record
35%
423-791 (1214)
Both legs:
Invested
$394.35
Value
$264.63
PnL
-$127.64
Record
41%
383-551 (934)
Invested
$222.99
Value
$224.99
PnL
+$2
Record
49%
440-450 (890)
machinelearnedInvested
$196
Value
$300
PnL
+$104
Record
41%
615-871 (1486)
Invested
$183.78
Value
—
PnL
-$183.78
Record
42%
407-568 (975)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$33
Record
—
9-8 (17)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.15
Value
$168.99
PnL
+$60.84
Record
44%
370-469 (839)
Invested
$110
Value
$101.4
PnL
-$3.85
Record
52%
519-475 (994)
Invested
$124.6
Value
$93.41
PnL
-$28.79
Record
55%
1146-933 (2079)
FairValueMachineInvested
$107.63
Value
$87.88
PnL
-$19.75
Record
53%
4165-3638 (7803)