Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 63%
7 arb excluded
$32.4K
$939.79
Smart Money Signal
36 of 57 top traders (63%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 62.3¢ | $5.9K | $9.4K | +$3.5K | 27% 50-135 (185) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.1K | -$80.46 | 56% 85-68 (153) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $4.1K | — | $-4.2K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $4.1K | $8.1K | +$4.2K | |
 Atomforge | Downavg 61.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.7K | +$1.2K | 22% 209-752 (961) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$162.82 | 27% 434-1187 (1621) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 67.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$205.25 | 46% 550-646 (1196) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$163.01 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 71.6¢ | $879.75 | $958.8 | +$82.96 | 20% 65-257 (322) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.6¢ | $799.61 | $647.6 | -$133.46 | 41% 383-551 (934) |
BO bosona | Downavg 70.7¢ | $970.03 | $507.78 | -$57.46 | 50% 3925-3931 (7856) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.3¢ | $448.31 | $486.93 | +$63.78 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63¢ | $570.91 | $471.56 | -$99.35 | 54% 3817-3196 (7013) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $561.49 | — | -$488.22 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 72.4¢ | $360.28 | $420.89 | +$60.61 | 35% 423-791 (1214) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 32.4¢ | $614.26 | — | -$614.26 | 59% 562-384 (946) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.3¢ | $406.25 | $369.7 | -$24.25 | 42% 407-568 (975) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $271.8 | $276.94 | +$5.14 | 49% 440-450 (890) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $801.72 | $249.99 | -$51.74 | 47% 700-792 (1492) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.7¢ | $86.66 | — | -$10 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.2¢ | $180.58 | $249.99 | -$41.74 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 29.2¢ | $276.19 | — | -$276.19 | 48% 1024-1120 (2144) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71.7¢ | $778.89 | $231.44 | +$40.48 | 46% 699-813 (1512) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 24.7¢ | $109.59 | — | -$109.59 | 50% 1015-1025 (2040) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $236.68 | $217.86 | -$18.81 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 74¢ | $207.43 | $190.32 | -$17.1 | 48% 402-435 (837) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 50% 216-217 (433) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $97.51 | — | -$97.51 | 38% 406-673 (1079) |
Invested
$5,854.24
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
27%
50-135 (185)
Invested
$8,737
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$80.46
Record
56%
85-68 (153)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$3,873.15
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
22%
209-752 (961)
Invested
$1,377.67
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$162.82
Record
27%
434-1187 (1621)
Invested
$1,382.66
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$205.25
Record
46%
550-646 (1196)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,587.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$163.01
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$879.75
Value
$958.8
PnL
+$82.96
Record
20%
65-257 (322)
Invested
$799.61
Value
$647.6
PnL
-$133.46
Record
41%
383-551 (934)
Invested
$970.03
Value
$507.78
PnL
-$57.46
Record
50%
3925-3931 (7856)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$448.31
Value
$486.93
PnL
+$63.78
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
Invested
$570.91
Value
$471.56
PnL
-$99.35
Record
54%
3817-3196 (7013)
Invested
$561.49
Value
—
PnL
-$488.22
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$360.28
Value
$420.89
PnL
+$60.61
Record
35%
423-791 (1214)
Invested
$614.26
Value
—
PnL
-$614.26
Record
59%
562-384 (946)
Invested
$406.25
Value
$369.7
PnL
-$24.25
Record
42%
407-568 (975)
Invested
$271.8
Value
$276.94
PnL
+$5.14
Record
49%
440-450 (890)
Invested
$801.72
Value
$249.99
PnL
-$51.74
Record
47%
700-792 (1492)
Both legs:
Invested
$276.19
Value
—
PnL
-$276.19
Record
48%
1024-1120 (2144)
Invested
$778.89
Value
$231.44
PnL
+$40.48
Record
46%
699-813 (1512)
Invested
$109.59
Value
—
PnL
-$109.59
Record
50%
1015-1025 (2040)
Invested
$236.68
Value
$217.86
PnL
-$18.81
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Invested
$207.43
Value
$190.32
PnL
-$17.1
Record
48%
402-435 (837)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
50%
216-217 (433)
Invested
$97.51
Value
—
PnL
-$97.51
Record
38%
406-673 (1079)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $9.4K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
Down — $4.7K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $1.1K
0xdc27...afdd9a
Down — $958.8
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $647.6
bosona
Down — $507.78
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0