Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

19 of 35 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,152

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL+$364.78

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$521.45	—	-$499.55	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.4¢	$223.54	$461.55	+$238.01	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$359.32	$246.26	-$113.06	48% 1024-1120 (2144)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$115.2	$246.26	+$131.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$244.12	—	-$244.12
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 24.9¢	$211.71	$155.76	-$55.95	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.9¢	$101.06	$155.76	+$54.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.9¢	$110.65	—	-$110.65
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$199.14	$184.5	-$14.64	51% 434-424 (858)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$106	$184.5	+$78.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$93.14	—	-$93.14
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 50¢	$180	—	-$180	50% 216-217 (433)
0X 0x8edb6bc0E3bD8455B952d59d367BD2D8Bc5499DF-1779888578794CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$150	—	-$150	— 9-8 (17)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 58.8¢	$99.72	$150.75	+$51.03	50% 418-416 (834)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 30.9¢	$122.24	$96.13	-$26.1	54% 3817-3196 (7013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$57.68	$96.13	+$38.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.9¢	$64.56	—	-$64.56
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 37.4¢	$132.37	$85	-$47.37	59% 562-384 (946)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.8¢	$63.6	$85	+$21.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$68.77	—	-$68.77
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 64¢	$111	$100	-$11	51% 427-418 (845)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 32¢	$109	$72.58	-$36.42	44% 370-469 (839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$45	$72.58	+$27.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$64	—	-$64
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 49¢	$53.23	$100	+$46.77	50% 421-413 (834)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$58.11	—	-$58.11	46% 550-646 (1196)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 90¢	$83.46	$89.2	+$5.74	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$147.81	$43.99	-$103.81	48% 402-435 (837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$105.13	—	-$105.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 97¢	$42.67	$43.99	+$1.32
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$21.75	—	-$21.75	46% 699-813 (1512)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$68.19	$39.06	-$29.12	35% 423-791 (1214)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.2¢	$31.33	$39.06	+$7.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$36.85	—	-$36.85
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$56.11	$58.86	+$2.75	59% 531-369 (900)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 33.3¢	$69.2	$33.1	-$36.1	53% 554-495 (1049)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.3¢	$50	—	-$50
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$19.2	$33.1	+$13.9
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 94¢	$35.5	$25	-$10.5	49% 440-450 (890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 8¢	$12	—	-$12
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$23.5	$25	+$1.5
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$41.65	$51.74	+$10.09	67% 1947-979 (2926)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 23.6¢	$49.62	—	-$49.62	27% 434-1187 (1621)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.1¢	$3.89	—	-$3.89	48% 754-833 (1587)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$521.45

Value

—

PnL

-$499.55

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$223.54

Value

$461.55

PnL

+$238.01

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$359.32

Value

$246.26

PnL

-$113.06

Record

48%

1024-1120 (2144)

Both legs:

Down$115.246.8¢+$131.06

Up$244.1237.6¢-$244.12

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$211.71

Value

$155.76

PnL

-$55.95

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

Both legs:

Down$101.0664.9¢+$54.7

Up$110.6524.9¢-$110.65

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$199.14

Value

$184.5

PnL

-$14.64

Record

51%

434-424 (858)

Both legs:

Down$10657.4¢+$78.51

Up$93.1432.7¢-$93.14

devonpollCTR

Invested

$180

Value

—

PnL

-$180

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

0x8edb6bc0E3bD8455B952d59d367BD2D8Bc5499DF-1779888578794CTR

Invested

$150

Value

—

PnL

-$150

Record

—

9-8 (17)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$99.72

Value

$150.75

PnL

+$51.03

Record

50%

418-416 (834)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$122.24

Value

$96.13

PnL

-$26.1

Record

54%

3817-3196 (7013)

Both legs:

Down$57.6860¢+$38.46

Up$64.5630.9¢-$64.56

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$132.37

Value

$85

PnL

-$47.37

Record

59%

562-384 (946)

Both legs:

Down$63.674.8¢+$21.4

Up$68.7737.4¢-$68.77

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$111

Value

$100

PnL

-$11

Record

51%

427-418 (845)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$109

Value

$72.58

PnL

-$36.42

Record

44%

370-469 (839)

Both legs:

Down$4562¢+$27.58

Up$6432¢-$64

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$53.23

Value

$100

PnL

+$46.77

Record

50%

421-413 (834)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Invested

$58.11

Value

—

PnL

-$58.11

Record

46%

550-646 (1196)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$83.46

Value

$89.2

PnL

+$5.74

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$147.81

Value

$43.99

PnL

-$103.81

Record

48%

402-435 (837)

Both legs:

Up$105.1346.5¢-$105.13

Down$42.6797¢+$1.32

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

—

PnL

-$21.75

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$68.19

Value

$39.06

PnL

-$29.12

Record

35%

423-791 (1214)

Both legs:

Down$31.3380.2¢+$7.73

Up$36.8523.5¢-$36.85

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$56.11

Value

$58.86

PnL

+$2.75

Record

59%

531-369 (900)

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$69.2

Value

$33.1

PnL

-$36.1

Record

53%

554-495 (1049)

Both legs:

Invested

$35.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$10.5

Record

49%

440-450 (890)

Both legs:

Invested

$41.65

Value

$51.74

PnL

+$10.09

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$49.62

Value

—

PnL

-$49.62

Record

27%

434-1187 (1621)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

—

PnL

-$3.89

Record

48%

754-833 (1587)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 35 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc50a7292...8b1302

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794462000

Traders in this Market

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

38791873984189

Down — $461.55

+$238.01

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Arbitrage — excluded

devonpoll

Up — $0

0x8edb6bc0E3bD8455B952d59d367BD2D8Bc5499DF-1779888578794

CTR

Up — $0

-$150

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down — $150.75

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded