Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$8.5K
-$299.48
Smart Money Signal
34 of 48 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.53 | 74% 846-295 (1141) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 91.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$88.66 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $569.53 | $493.45 | +$1.87 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82¢ | $377.73 | $349.92 | -$8.41 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 72.4¢ | $203.22 | $233.67 | +$30.45 | 46% 686-795 (1481) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $244.59 | $505.39 | +$260.8 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 86.8¢ | $211.06 | $243.17 | +$32.11 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 87.1¢ | $261.54 | $219.89 | -$41.65 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $184.25 | $178.49 | -$5.76 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $139.59 | $174.45 | +$34.87 | 48% 392-421 (813) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $153.79 | $169 | +$15.21 | 51% 418-407 (825) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 93¢ | $169.21 | $150 | -$19.21 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
97 0x976d...8b63 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $150 | $150 | +$6.61 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 83.6¢ | $141.59 | $136.81 | -$4.78 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 53.1¢ | $126.84 | $125.44 | -$1.41 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 93¢ | $124.98 | $119.99 | -$4.98 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 92.5¢ | $105.24 | $109.49 | +$4.25 | 58% 502-365 (867) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 90.6¢ | $103.37 | $107.11 | +$3.74 | 60% 513-340 (853) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $74.95 | $57.77 | -$17.18 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.9¢ | $51.34 | $57.77 | +$6.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 3.6¢ | $23.61 | — | -$23.61 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $76.16 | $80 | +$3.84 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $66.06 | $75 | +$8.94 | 50% 3482-3417 (6899) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $52.26 | $72.19 | +$19.93 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 46.8¢ | $65.76 | $140.36 | +$74.6 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $40.65 | $62.07 | +$21.42 | 52% 506-465 (971) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,220.75
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.53
Record
74%
846-295 (1141)
Invested
$1,005.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$88.66
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$569.53
Value
$493.45
PnL
+$1.87
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$377.73
Value
$349.92
PnL
-$8.41
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$203.22
Value
$233.67
PnL
+$30.45
Record
46%
686-795 (1481)
Invested
$244.59
Value
$505.39
PnL
+$260.8
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$211.06
Value
$243.17
PnL
+$32.11
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
Invested
$261.54
Value
$219.89
PnL
-$41.65
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$184.25
Value
$178.49
PnL
-$5.76
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
Invested
$139.59
Value
$174.45
PnL
+$34.87
Record
48%
392-421 (813)
Invested
$153.79
Value
$169
PnL
+$15.21
Record
51%
418-407 (825)
Invested
$169.21
Value
$150
PnL
-$19.21
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$6.61
Record
—
Invested
$141.59
Value
$136.81
PnL
-$4.78
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$126.84
Value
$125.44
PnL
-$1.41
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
Invested
$124.98
Value
$119.99
PnL
-$4.98
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
Invested
$105.24
Value
$109.49
PnL
+$4.25
Record
58%
502-365 (867)
Invested
$103.37
Value
$107.11
PnL
+$3.74
Record
60%
513-340 (853)
Invested
$74.95
Value
$57.77
PnL
-$17.18
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$76.16
Value
$80
PnL
+$3.84
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
Invested
$66.06
Value
$75
PnL
+$8.94
Record
50%
3482-3417 (6899)
Invested
$52.26
Value
$72.19
PnL
+$19.93
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Invested
$65.76
Value
$140.36
PnL
+$74.6
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Invested
$40.65
Value
$62.07
PnL
+$21.42
Record
52%
506-465 (971)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $493.45
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $349.92
mo-money
Down — $233.67
38791873984189
Down — $505.39
uninformedfloww
Down — $243.17
blue.birds
Down — $219.89
EZTRADENL2
Down — $178.49