Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 49% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
51
Down 49%
7 arb excluded
$10.2K
$-12.4K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 51 top traders (49%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.5K | 57% 73-56 (129) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$57.12 | 99% 448-2 (450) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$34.66 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $823.41 | $986.19 | +$162.78 | 50% 404-408 (812) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 56.8¢ | $810.82 | — | -$810.82 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 90.3¢ | $683.22 | — | -$683.22 | 46% 686-795 (1481) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 60.8¢ | $584.13 | $693.92 | +$109.79 | 41% 599-859 (1458) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 45.9¢ | $547.89 | — | -$538.79 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 41.4¢ | $480.69 | — | -$480.69 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 41.8¢ | $618.37 | — | -$618.37 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $573.88 | $486.31 | +$14.55 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.9¢ | $268.23 | — | -$245.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $219.39 | $486.31 | +$260.35 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $460.88 | $459.27 | -$1.61 | 49% 396-415 (811) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.4¢ | $208.64 | $459.27 | +$250.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $252.24 | — | -$252.24 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 63.7¢ | $321.98 | — | -$321.98 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $221.56 | $379.29 | +$157.72 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 54.2¢ | $387.2 | — | -$387.2 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 67.8¢ | $290.91 | — | -$290.91 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $196.85 | $171.93 | -$24.92 | 51% 418-407 (825) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76¢ | $180.76 | — | -$180.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.4¢ | $16.09 | $171.93 | +$155.84 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 64.3¢ | $182.18 | — | -$182.18 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Downavg 42.2¢ | $154.49 | — | -$154.49 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 26.4¢ | $44.75 | $169.26 | +$124.51 | 55% 1115-909 (2024) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 83.7¢ | $274.98 | — | -$274.98 | 47% 685-774 (1459) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $130.16 | $139.74 | +$9.58 | 15% 170-951 (1121) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 86.2¢ | $745.68 | — | -$735.53 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $131.26 | $171.6 | +$40.34 | 44% 358-458 (816) |
Invested
$8,717
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$3,442.88
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$57.12
Record
99%
448-2 (450)
Invested
$1,224.48
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$34.66
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$823.41
Value
$986.19
PnL
+$162.78
Record
50%
404-408 (812)
Invested
$810.82
Value
—
PnL
-$810.82
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$683.22
Value
—
PnL
-$683.22
Record
46%
686-795 (1481)
machinelearnedInvested
$584.13
Value
$693.92
PnL
+$109.79
Record
41%
599-859 (1458)
Invested
$547.89
Value
—
PnL
-$538.79
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Invested
$480.69
Value
—
PnL
-$480.69
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$618.37
Value
—
PnL
-$618.37
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$573.88
Value
$486.31
PnL
+$14.55
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$460.88
Value
$459.27
PnL
-$1.61
Record
49%
396-415 (811)
Both legs:
Invested
$321.98
Value
—
PnL
-$321.98
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$221.56
Value
$379.29
PnL
+$157.72
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Invested
$387.2
Value
—
PnL
-$387.2
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$290.91
Value
—
PnL
-$290.91
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
Invested
$196.85
Value
$171.93
PnL
-$24.92
Record
51%
418-407 (825)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$182.18
Value
—
PnL
-$182.18
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$154.49
Value
—
PnL
-$154.49
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
Invested
$44.75
Value
$169.26
PnL
+$124.51
Record
55%
1115-909 (2024)
Invested
$274.98
Value
—
PnL
-$274.98
Record
47%
685-774 (1459)
NIULAI4Invested
$130.16
Value
$139.74
PnL
+$9.58
Record
15%
170-951 (1121)
Invested
$745.68
Value
—
PnL
-$735.53
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Invested
$131.26
Value
$171.6
PnL
+$40.34
Record
44%
358-458 (816)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Up — $986.19
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $693.92
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0