Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$10.8K
$-8.9K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 51 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.4K | 57% 73-56 (129) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$4.26 | 47% 727-804 (1531) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 91.1¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$134.52 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.7¢ | $797.2 | $800 | +$2.8 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91.5¢ | $572.58 | $625.76 | +$53.19 | 41% 599-859 (1458) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $510.95 | $500 | +$7.12 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 91.3¢ | $286.38 | $259.98 | -$26.4 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 24.7¢ | $180.19 | $111.78 | -$68.41 | 51% 413-399 (812) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.7¢ | $125.53 | — | -$125.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $54.65 | $111.78 | +$57.12 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $162.05 | $195.84 | +$33.79 | 44% 358-458 (816) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 90.9¢ | $159.05 | $175 | +$15.95 | 58% 502-365 (867) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 90.5¢ | $150.36 | $166.11 | +$15.75 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 88.5¢ | $141.6 | $160 | +$18.4 | 60% 513-340 (853) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 64.6¢ | $141.69 | $219.5 | +$77.81 | 53% 540-472 (1012) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $133.66 | $131 | -$2.66 | 39% 691-1090 (1781) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $123.34 | $100 | -$23.34 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $68 | $100 | +$32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.4¢ | $55.34 | — | -$55.34 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.3¢ | $111.02 | $122.73 | +$12.66 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $100 | $108.64 | +$8.63 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 86.2¢ | $121.2 | $95.73 | -$25.47 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 74.2¢ | $85.22 | $106.17 | +$20.95 | 52% 506-465 (971) |
97 0x976d...8b63CTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $150 | — | -$100.43 | — |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $86.34 | $97.93 | +$11.58 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $93.99 | $84.6 | -$8.3 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49¢ | $73.99 | $150.99 | +$77.01 | 48% 1010-1104 (2114) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $49.9 | $55 | +$5.1 | 47% 1112-1258 (2370) |
Invested
$8,973
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$4,254.21
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$4.26
Record
47%
727-804 (1531)
Invested
$1,827.2
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$134.52
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$797.2
Value
$800
PnL
+$2.8
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
machinelearnedInvested
$572.58
Value
$625.76
PnL
+$53.19
Record
41%
599-859 (1458)
Invested
$510.95
Value
$500
PnL
+$7.12
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$286.38
Value
$259.98
PnL
-$26.4
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$180.19
Value
$111.78
PnL
-$68.41
Record
51%
413-399 (812)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.05
Value
$195.84
PnL
+$33.79
Record
44%
358-458 (816)
Invested
$159.05
Value
$175
PnL
+$15.95
Record
58%
502-365 (867)
Invested
$150.36
Value
$166.11
PnL
+$15.75
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
Invested
$141.6
Value
$160
PnL
+$18.4
Record
60%
513-340 (853)
Invested
$141.69
Value
$219.5
PnL
+$77.81
Record
53%
540-472 (1012)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$133.66
Value
$131
PnL
-$2.66
Record
39%
691-1090 (1781)
Invested
$123.34
Value
$100
PnL
-$23.34
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.02
Value
$122.73
PnL
+$12.66
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$100
Value
$108.64
PnL
+$8.63
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$121.2
Value
$95.73
PnL
-$25.47
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
Invested
$85.22
Value
$106.17
PnL
+$20.95
Record
52%
506-465 (971)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$100.43
Record
—
Invested
$86.34
Value
$97.93
PnL
+$11.58
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
Invested
$93.99
Value
$84.6
PnL
-$8.3
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$73.99
Value
$150.99
PnL
+$77.01
Record
48%
1010-1104 (2114)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$55
PnL
+$5.1
Record
47%
1112-1258 (2370)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $4.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.0K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $800
machinelearned
Down — $625.76
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $259.98
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Down — $195.84