Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 31%
11 arb excluded
$19.4K
$-7.2K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 48 top traders (31%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.9K | +$109.37 | 57% 73-56 (129) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 846-295 (1141) |
TH THG.CTR | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | — | $-3.5K | 99% 448-2 (450) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 64.7¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 54.1¢ | $720.18 | — | -$720.18 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 42.4¢ | $666.45 | $734.83 | +$68.37 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.4¢ | $380.38 | — | -$380.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.9¢ | $286.07 | $734.83 | +$448.76 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 48¢ | $457.06 | $727.26 | +$270.2 | 51% 413-399 (812) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 40¢ | $378 | $680.86 | +$302.85 | 42% 396-555 (951) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 59.8¢ | $564.23 | — | -$564.23 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $561.84 | — | -$548.04 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $617.48 | $489.69 | +$26.75 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $245.51 | — | -$226.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $238.41 | $489.69 | +$253.63 | |
 NIULAI4CTR | Upavg 52.5¢ | $442.77 | — | -$442.77 | 15% 170-951 (1121) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 42.8¢ | $399 | — | -$230.51 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 42.6¢ | $392.1 | $394.59 | +$108.4 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Upavg 55.7¢ | $493.1 | — | -$493.1 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 68.3¢ | $288.88 | — | -$288.88 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $342.39 | $386.45 | +$44.05 | 50% 404-408 (812) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $196.48 | $386.45 | +$189.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.5¢ | $145.91 | — | -$145.91 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 32.3¢ | $231.06 | $461.44 | +$230.38 | 51% 418-407 (825) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.3¢ | $148.93 | $461.44 | +$312.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.3¢ | $82.13 | — | -$82.13 | |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $259.82 | $296.85 | +$37.03 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.6¢ | $136.24 | — | -$136.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.6¢ | $123.58 | $296.85 | +$173.27 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 12.5¢ | $39.49 | $256.39 | +$216.9 | 48% 392-421 (813) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $246.8 | $238.84 | -$7.96 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 91.5¢ | $218.5 | — | -$218.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 11.8¢ | $28.3 | $238.84 | +$210.55 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 37.2¢ | $81.8 | $219.99 | +$138.19 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 41.6¢ | $164.82 | $215.66 | +$94.25 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR | Upavg 60.5¢ | $164.35 | — | -$164.35 | 60% 513-340 (853) |
Invested
$8,566
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$109.37
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
846-295 (1141)
Invested
$3,465
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
99%
448-2 (450)
Invested
$1,022.68
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$720.18
Value
—
PnL
-$720.18
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$666.45
Value
$734.83
PnL
+$68.37
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Both legs:
Invested
$457.06
Value
$727.26
PnL
+$270.2
Record
51%
413-399 (812)
Invested
$378
Value
$680.86
PnL
+$302.85
Record
42%
396-555 (951)
Invested
$564.23
Value
—
PnL
-$564.23
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$561.84
Value
—
PnL
-$548.04
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$617.48
Value
$489.69
PnL
+$26.75
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$442.77
Value
—
PnL
-$442.77
Record
15%
170-951 (1121)
Invested
$399
Value
—
PnL
-$230.51
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$392.1
Value
$394.59
PnL
+$108.4
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Invested
$493.1
Value
—
PnL
-$493.1
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
Invested
$288.88
Value
—
PnL
-$288.88
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
Invested
$342.39
Value
$386.45
PnL
+$44.05
Record
50%
404-408 (812)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.06
Value
$461.44
PnL
+$230.38
Record
51%
418-407 (825)
Both legs:
Invested
$259.82
Value
$296.85
PnL
+$37.03
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.49
Value
$256.39
PnL
+$216.9
Record
48%
392-421 (813)
Invested
$246.8
Value
$238.84
PnL
-$7.96
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$81.8
Value
$219.99
PnL
+$138.19
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$164.82
Value
$215.66
PnL
+$94.25
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
Invested
$164.35
Value
—
PnL
-$164.35
Record
60%
513-340 (853)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
THG.
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $727.26
GoodFallen
Down — $680.86
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0