Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 69%
2 arb excluded
$10.4K
$-9.7K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 60 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.4K | 57% 73-56 (129) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 448-2 (450) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 84.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$49.73 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 83.8¢ | $530.44 | $504.91 | -$25.53 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 47.9¢ | $517.9 | — | -$490.3 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.1¢ | $440.55 | $444.79 | +$60.95 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $403.29 | $361.24 | -$42.05 | 48% 392-421 (813) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $301.89 | $293 | -$8.89 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 86.5¢ | $305.65 | $285.04 | -$20.61 | 42% 396-555 (951) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 76¢ | $290.57 | $268.25 | -$22.32 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 87.9¢ | $330.44 | $257.22 | -$73.22 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $296.41 | $253.18 | -$43.24 | 51% 1582-1533 (3115) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 80.4¢ | $258.41 | $241.5 | -$16.91 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $217.58 | $211.36 | +$25.46 | 55% 1115-909 (2024) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 92¢ | $212.66 | $172.73 | -$39.92 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 76.1¢ | $126.4 | $166.2 | +$39.8 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $156.6 | $140 | -$16.6 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.3¢ | $83 | $140 | +$57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.5¢ | $73.6 | — | -$73.6 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 80.8¢ | $148.95 | $150 | +$11.78 | 74% 846-295 (1141) |
97 0x976d...8b63 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $150 | $150 | +$5.25 | — |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 76.2¢ | $140.56 | $129.07 | -$11.49 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 87¢ | $123.69 | $126.89 | +$3.2 | 15% 170-951 (1121) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 83.9¢ | $142.42 | $119.99 | +$9.48 | 58% 502-365 (867) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 78.9¢ | $151.58 | $120.03 | +$17.89 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $92.82 | $75.16 | -$17.66 | 51% 418-407 (825) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.7¢ | $52.36 | $75.16 | +$22.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.7¢ | $40.46 | — | -$40.46 |
Invested
$8,754
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
448-2 (450)
Invested
$1,240.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$49.73
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$530.44
Value
$504.91
PnL
-$25.53
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$517.9
Value
—
PnL
-$490.3
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$440.55
Value
$444.79
PnL
+$60.95
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$403.29
Value
$361.24
PnL
-$42.05
Record
48%
392-421 (813)
Invested
$301.89
Value
$293
PnL
-$8.89
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
Invested
$305.65
Value
$285.04
PnL
-$20.61
Record
42%
396-555 (951)
Invested
$290.57
Value
$268.25
PnL
-$22.32
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$330.44
Value
$257.22
PnL
-$73.22
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$296.41
Value
$253.18
PnL
-$43.24
Record
51%
1582-1533 (3115)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$258.41
Value
$241.5
PnL
-$16.91
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
Invested
$217.58
Value
$211.36
PnL
+$25.46
Record
55%
1115-909 (2024)
Invested
$212.66
Value
$172.73
PnL
-$39.92
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$126.4
Value
$166.2
PnL
+$39.8
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$156.6
Value
$140
PnL
-$16.6
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$148.95
Value
$150
PnL
+$11.78
Record
74%
846-295 (1141)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$5.25
Record
—
Invested
$140.56
Value
$129.07
PnL
-$11.49
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
NIULAI4Invested
$123.69
Value
$126.89
PnL
+$3.2
Record
15%
170-951 (1121)
Invested
$142.42
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$9.48
Record
58%
502-365 (867)
Invested
$151.58
Value
$120.03
PnL
+$17.89
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
Invested
$92.82
Value
$75.16
PnL
-$17.66
Record
51%
418-407 (825)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
blue.birds
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $504.91
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $444.79
0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877
Down — $361.24
EZTRADENL2
Down — $293
GoodFallen
Down — $285.04