Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 60%
4 arb excluded
$8.0K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 53 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.8K | 57% 73-56 (129) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 448-2 (450) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $549.19 | $499.3 | +$6.56 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.9¢ | $428.25 | $463.37 | +$35.97 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 76.1¢ | $408.29 | $419.52 | +$11.22 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.7¢ | $245.62 | $258.94 | +$13.32 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $186.18 | $256.4 | +$70.22 | 50% 404-408 (812) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.4¢ | $142.15 | $256.4 | +$114.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17¢ | $44.03 | — | -$44.03 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 69.2¢ | $234.83 | $234.91 | +$0.07 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 83.6¢ | $225.82 | $270.2 | +$44.38 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 80.6¢ | $313.14 | $198.6 | -$114.54 | 41% 599-859 (1458) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $209.87 | $181.57 | -$10.35 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 72¢ | $165.1 | $174.01 | +$8.9 | 49% 396-415 (811) |
SU suntori | Downavg 69.3¢ | $147.63 | $165.9 | +$65.49 | 47% 1320-1474 (2794) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 63.7¢ | $151.1 | $237.24 | +$86.14 | 53% 540-472 (1012) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.7¢ | $145.93 | $152.19 | +$6.26 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $129.1 | $68.72 | -$60.38 | 47% 685-774 (1459) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14¢ | $70 | — | -$70 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86¢ | $59.1 | $68.72 | +$9.62 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 77.2¢ | $134.15 | $107.74 | -$26.41 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
97 0x976d...8b63ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $150 | $75 | -$21.75 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $37.13 | $75 | +$54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $75.75 | — | -$75.75 | |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $65 | — | -$65 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
 ohioism | Downavg 92¢ | $94.85 | $100 | +$5.15 | 48% 1088-1178 (2266) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $85.24 | $83.17 | -$2.07 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.3¢ | $69.4 | — | -$69.4 | 38% 399-656 (1055) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $58.78 | $79.98 | +$21.19 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $94.98 | $60 | -$34.98 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
Invested
$8,582
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
448-2 (450)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$549.19
Value
$499.3
PnL
+$6.56
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$428.25
Value
$463.37
PnL
+$35.97
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$408.29
Value
$419.52
PnL
+$11.22
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$245.62
Value
$258.94
PnL
+$13.32
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$186.18
Value
$256.4
PnL
+$70.22
Record
50%
404-408 (812)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$234.83
Value
$234.91
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$225.82
Value
$270.2
PnL
+$44.38
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
machinelearnedInvested
$313.14
Value
$198.6
PnL
-$114.54
Record
41%
599-859 (1458)
Invested
$209.87
Value
$181.57
PnL
-$10.35
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$165.1
Value
$174.01
PnL
+$8.9
Record
49%
396-415 (811)
Invested
$147.63
Value
$165.9
PnL
+$65.49
Record
47%
1320-1474 (2794)
Invested
$151.1
Value
$237.24
PnL
+$86.14
Record
53%
540-472 (1012)
Invested
$145.93
Value
$152.19
PnL
+$6.26
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Invested
$129.1
Value
$68.72
PnL
-$60.38
Record
47%
685-774 (1459)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.15
Value
$107.74
PnL
-$26.41
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$150
Value
$75
PnL
-$21.75
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$65
Value
—
PnL
-$65
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
ohioismInvested
$94.85
Value
$100
PnL
+$5.15
Record
48%
1088-1178 (2266)
Invested
$85.24
Value
$83.17
PnL
-$2.07
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
Invested
$69.4
Value
—
PnL
-$69.4
Record
38%
399-656 (1055)
Invested
$58.78
Value
$79.98
PnL
+$21.19
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$94.98
Value
$60
PnL
-$34.98
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $499.3
blue.birds
Down — $463.37
Bonereaper
Down — $419.52
stepahead
Down — $258.94
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $234.91
uninformedfloww
Down — $270.2