Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$-7.1K

Smart Money Signal

38 of 55 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,406

Combined PnL$-8.5K

Up38 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares12,601

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	—	$-7.6K	57% 73-56 (129)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$37.25	99% 448-2 (450)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 89.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$31.63	60% 549-373 (922)
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	47% 738-817 (1555)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68¢	$582.07	$675.75	+$124.07	46% 534-630 (1164)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.1¢	$518.84	$501.07	-$17.77	41% 370-540 (910)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.4¢	$559.43	$503	-$0.54	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
MO mo-money	Upavg 62¢	$663.52	$500	+$336.48	46% 686-795 (1481)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.1¢	$440.59	$439.88	-$0.71	26% 423-1174 (1597)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81.3¢	$435.03	$382.51	-$52.52	52% 3844-3594 (7438)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 60.3¢	$275.92	$306.22	+$30.3	34% 410-780 (1190)
ST stepahead	Upavg 47.3¢	$233.9	$266.2	+$32.31	54% 3796-3185 (6981)
BO bosona	Upavg 24¢	$58.16	$219.04	+$160.88	50% 3912-3912 (7824)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 42.3¢	$250.72	—	-$190.72	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 86.9¢	$189.24	$178.31	-$10.92	50% 431-435 (866)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 40.4¢	$109.76	$270.41	+$160.65	48% 392-421 (813)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 87¢	$205.29	$142.84	-$12.46	59% 518-358 (876)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 75¢	$170.2	$124	-$46.2	42% 396-555 (951)
AL almach	Upavg 24¢	$120	$500	+$380	47% 685-774 (1459)
FL flippingsharks	Upavg 40¢	$68.92	$127.3	+$58.38	38% 399-656 (1055)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Downavg 62.9¢	$138.94	—	-$138.94	49% 396-415 (811)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 69.5¢	$122.59	$113.01	-$2.1	67% 1888-951 (2839)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 87.6¢	$114.4	$97.05	-$17.35	60% 513-340 (853)
97 0x976d...8b63ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$150	$150	+$43.5	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$37.13	—	-$30.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$75.75	$150	+$74.25

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,527

Value

—

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

57%

73-56 (129)

THG.

Invested

$3,462.75

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$37.25

Record

99%

448-2 (450)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,450.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$31.63

Record

60%

549-373 (922)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$582.07

Value

$675.75

PnL

+$124.07

Record

46%

534-630 (1164)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$518.84

Value

$501.07

PnL

-$17.77

Record

41%

370-540 (910)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$559.43

Value

$503

PnL

-$0.54

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

mo-money

Invested

$663.52

Value

$500

PnL

+$336.48

Record

46%

686-795 (1481)

ply-pm0

Invested

$440.59

Value

$439.88

PnL

-$0.71

Record

26%

423-1174 (1597)

blue.birds

Invested

$435.03

Value

$382.51

PnL

-$52.52

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$275.92

Value

$306.22

PnL

+$30.3

Record

34%

410-780 (1190)

stepahead

Invested

$233.9

Value

$266.2

PnL

+$32.31

Record

54%

3796-3185 (6981)

bosona

Invested

$58.16

Value

$219.04

PnL

+$160.88

Record

50%

3912-3912 (7824)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$250.72

Value

—

PnL

-$190.72

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$189.24

Value

$178.31

PnL

-$10.92

Record

50%

431-435 (866)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$109.76

Value

$270.41

PnL

+$160.65

Record

48%

392-421 (813)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$205.29

Value

$142.84

PnL

-$12.46

Record

59%

518-358 (876)

GoodFallen

Invested

$170.2

Value

$124

PnL

-$46.2

Record

42%

396-555 (951)

almach

Invested

$120

Value

$500

PnL

+$380

Record

47%

685-774 (1459)

flippingsharks

Invested

$68.92

Value

$127.3

PnL

+$58.38

Record

38%

399-656 (1055)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Down

Invested

$138.94

Value

—

PnL

-$138.94

Record

49%

396-415 (811)

asdaefef

Invested

$122.59

Value

$113.01

PnL

-$2.1

Record

67%

1888-951 (2839)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$114.4

Value

$97.05

PnL

-$17.35

Record

60%

513-340 (853)

0x976d...8b63ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$43.5

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$37.1349.5¢-$30.75

Up$75.7550.5¢+$74.25

Smart Money Signal

38 of 55 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa536143f...fd7f87

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794456600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.6K

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$37.25

Bonereaper

Up — $1.5K

+$31.63

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $1.0K

+$10

CrouchPredictions

Up — $675.75

+$124.07

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $501.07

-$17.77

ByteBadger92

Up — $503

-$0.54

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0

mo-money

Up — $500

+$336.48

ply-pm0

Up — $439.88

-$0.71

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