Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$-10.5K

Smart Money Signal

24 of 53 top traders (45%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,362

Combined PnL$-11.0K

Down29 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,338

Combined PnL+$468.13

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	—	$-8.0K	57% 73-56 (129)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 86.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$36.07	60% 549-373 (922)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 38.2¢	$819.9	—	-$819.9	50% 977-986 (1963)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 57.7¢	$518.07	$621.97	+$103.9	51% 418-407 (825)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$547.35	—	-$496.11	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 67.7¢	$278	$410.59	+$132.59	46% 1064-1272 (2336)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$400.96	$334.56	-$66.4	48% 1010-1104 (2114)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$234.68	—	-$234.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$166.28	$334.56	+$168.29
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.5¢	$364.14	$386.68	+$24.01	41% 370-540 (910)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 46¢	$361.18	$293.13	-$68.06	41% 599-859 (1458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$173.09	$293.13	+$120.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$188.1	—	-$188.1
BL blue.birds	Downavg 69¢	$255.18	$304.36	+$49.18	52% 3844-3594 (7438)
ST stepahead	Downavg 55.4¢	$310	$293.16	-$16.84	54% 3796-3185 (6981)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 66.2¢	$173.03	$202.55	+$29.53	50% 404-408 (812)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 34¢	$187.57	—	-$187.57	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 35.5¢	$251.54	$105.07	-$146.47	46% 534-630 (1164)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$58.36	$105.07	+$46.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$193.18	—	-$193.18
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$173.2	$178.85	+$5.65	50% 421-413 (834)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$109.71	$178.85	+$69.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$63.49	—	-$63.49
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38¢	$173.33	—	-$173.33	26% 423-1174 (1597)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$224.41	$70.89	-$153.53	49% 396-415 (811)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$186.21	—	-$186.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.9¢	$38.2	$70.89	+$32.68
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 55.9¢	$138.71	$137.54	-$1.17	47% 799-905 (1704)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 72.8¢	$135.03	$137.42	+$12.11	67% 1888-951 (2839)
SP spartacray	Downavg 73.8¢	$108.6	$128.36	+$32.14	58% 502-365 (867)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 56¢	$142.02	—	-$142.02	53% 540-472 (1012)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$133.02	$111.76	-$21.26	48% 392-421 (813)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$60.35	$111.76	+$51.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$72.67	—	-$72.67
97 0x976d...8b63ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$150	$84.74	-$30.02	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$75.75	—	-$75.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$41.94	$84.74	+$45.73
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 74.6¢	$112.25	$113.6	+$1.35	50% 431-435 (866)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,527

Value

—

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

57%

73-56 (129)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,762.11

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$36.07

Record

60%

549-373 (922)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$819.9

Value

—

PnL

-$819.9

Record

50%

977-986 (1963)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$518.07

Value

$621.97

PnL

+$103.9

Record

51%

418-407 (825)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$547.35

Value

—

PnL

-$496.11

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$278

Value

$410.59

PnL

+$132.59

Record

46%

1064-1272 (2336)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$400.96

Value

$334.56

PnL

-$66.4

Record

48%

1010-1104 (2114)

Both legs:

Up$234.6849.2¢-$234.68

Down$166.2849.7¢+$168.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$364.14

Value

$386.68

PnL

+$24.01

Record

41%

370-540 (910)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$361.18

Value

$293.13

PnL

-$68.06

Record

41%

599-859 (1458)

Both legs:

Down$173.0959¢+$120.04

Up$188.146¢-$188.1

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$255.18

Value

$304.36

PnL

+$49.18

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$310

Value

$293.16

PnL

-$16.84

Record

54%

3796-3185 (6981)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$173.03

Value

$202.55

PnL

+$29.53

Record

50%

404-408 (812)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$187.57

Value

—

PnL

-$187.57

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$251.54

Value

$105.07

PnL

-$146.47

Record

46%

534-630 (1164)

Both legs:

Down$58.3655.5¢+$46.71

Up$193.1835.5¢-$193.18

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$173.2

Value

$178.85

PnL

+$5.65

Record

50%

421-413 (834)

Both legs:

Down$109.7161.3¢+$69.15

Up$63.4948¢-$63.49

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$173.33

Value

—

PnL

-$173.33

Record

26%

423-1174 (1597)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$224.41

Value

$70.89

PnL

-$153.53

Record

49%

396-415 (811)

Both legs:

Up$186.2153.6¢-$186.21

Down$38.253.9¢+$32.68

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$138.71

Value

$137.54

PnL

-$1.17

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$135.03

Value

$137.42

PnL

+$12.11

Record

67%

1888-951 (2839)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$108.6

Value

$128.36

PnL

+$32.14

Record

58%

502-365 (867)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$142.02

Value

—

PnL

-$142.02

Record

53%

540-472 (1012)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$133.02

Value

$111.76

PnL

-$21.26

Record

48%

392-421 (813)

Both legs:

Down$60.3554¢+$51.41

Up$72.6743¢-$72.67

0x976d...8b63ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$84.74

PnL

-$30.02

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$75.7550.5¢-$75.75

Down$41.9449.5¢+$45.73

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$112.25

Value

$113.6

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

431-435 (866)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 53 top traders (45%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf9910c09...cce12b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794456300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.0K

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

-$36.07

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$819.9

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down — $621.97

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $410.59

+$132.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$66.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $386.68

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded