Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 70%
4 arb excluded
$9.1K
$-7.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 53 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.6K | 57% 73-56 (129) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$27.34 | 99% 448-2 (450) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 83.9¢ | $879.92 | $834.31 | -$45.6 | 41% 599-859 (1458) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 76.3¢ | $733.44 | $738.18 | +$4.74 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51¢ | $555.71 | $497.55 | +$7.73 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73¢ | $354.38 | $371.34 | +$16.96 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 26.2¢ | $288.59 | $206.69 | -$81.9 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67¢ | $138.44 | $206.69 | +$68.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.2¢ | $150.15 | — | -$150.15 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 67.6¢ | $255.26 | $213.26 | -$22.6 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
BO bosona | Upavg 87¢ | $245.43 | $208.11 | -$37.32 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 93¢ | $157.17 | $169 | +$11.83 | 49% 396-415 (811) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 72.6¢ | $170.31 | $167.67 | -$2.64 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 88¢ | $201.51 | $169 | -$32.51 | 51% 413-399 (812) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.4¢ | $202.9 | $155.19 | -$47.71 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 61¢ | $138.42 | $139.21 | +$0.79 | 42% 396-555 (951) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $181.4 | $127.75 | -$53.65 | 44% 358-458 (816) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.6¢ | $76.1 | $127.75 | +$51.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.1¢ | $105.31 | — | -$105.31 | |
97 0x976d...8b63 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $150 | $150 | +$8.25 | — |
SP spartacray | Upavg 84.7¢ | $153.48 | $149.41 | -$4.07 | 58% 502-365 (867) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 84.2¢ | $113.2 | $121.56 | +$15.02 | 52% 506-465 (971) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $304.86 | $110.99 | -$25.44 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 68.3¢ | $110.65 | $126.25 | +$15.6 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 73¢ | $109.48 | $149.98 | +$40.49 | 46% 1064-1272 (2336) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 77.3¢ | $118.94 | $119.99 | +$1.05 | 60% 513-340 (853) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74.8¢ | $73.73 | $98.62 | +$24.89 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $91.65 | $95 | +$3.35 | 48% 1088-1178 (2266) |
Invested
$8,840
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$2,706.92
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$27.34
Record
99%
448-2 (450)
machinelearnedInvested
$879.92
Value
$834.31
PnL
-$45.6
Record
41%
599-859 (1458)
Invested
$733.44
Value
$738.18
PnL
+$4.74
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$555.71
Value
$497.55
PnL
+$7.73
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$354.38
Value
$371.34
PnL
+$16.96
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$288.59
Value
$206.69
PnL
-$81.9
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$255.26
Value
$213.26
PnL
-$22.6
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$245.43
Value
$208.11
PnL
-$37.32
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Invested
$157.17
Value
$169
PnL
+$11.83
Record
49%
396-415 (811)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$170.31
Value
$167.67
PnL
-$2.64
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
Invested
$201.51
Value
$169
PnL
-$32.51
Record
51%
413-399 (812)
Invested
$202.9
Value
$155.19
PnL
-$47.71
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$138.42
Value
$139.21
PnL
+$0.79
Record
42%
396-555 (951)
Invested
$181.4
Value
$127.75
PnL
-$53.65
Record
44%
358-458 (816)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$8.25
Record
—
Invested
$153.48
Value
$149.41
PnL
-$4.07
Record
58%
502-365 (867)
Invested
$113.2
Value
$121.56
PnL
+$15.02
Record
52%
506-465 (971)
Invested
$304.86
Value
$110.99
PnL
-$25.44
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
Invested
$110.65
Value
$126.25
PnL
+$15.6
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
Invested
$109.48
Value
$149.98
PnL
+$40.49
Record
46%
1064-1272 (2336)
Invested
$118.94
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$1.05
Record
60%
513-340 (853)
Invested
$73.73
Value
$98.62
PnL
+$24.89
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
ohioism<$100Invested
$91.65
Value
$95
PnL
+$3.35
Record
48%
1088-1178 (2266)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.7K
machinelearned
Up — $834.31
Bonereaper
Up — $738.18
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $497.55
blue.birds
Up — $371.34
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $213.26
bosona
Up — $208.11