Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Down 57%
3 arb excluded
$14.2K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 47 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.8K | +$36.29 | 57% 73-56 (129) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$305.22 | 60% 549-373 (922) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53.6¢ | $524.74 | $564.77 | +$40.04 | 41% 370-540 (910) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.4¢ | $606.2 | — | -$500.95 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $379.52 | $405.11 | +$27.5 | 26% 423-1174 (1597) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 75.8¢ | $361.93 | — | -$361.93 | 41% 599-859 (1458) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 30.5¢ | $378.07 | — | -$378.07 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 58.4¢ | $206.95 | $314.15 | +$107.21 | 42% 396-555 (951) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 46.8¢ | $153.65 | $307.55 | +$153.9 | 44% 358-458 (816) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 55.8¢ | $194.89 | $217.81 | +$22.93 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 65.3¢ | $230.41 | $210.35 | -$20.07 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 71.9¢ | $164.64 | $191.22 | +$26.58 | 60% 513-340 (853) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR | Upavg 73.2¢ | $185.75 | — | -$185.75 | 50% 404-408 (812) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 42.1¢ | $101.12 | $157.5 | +$74.82 | 52% 506-465 (971) |
97 0x976d...8b63CTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $144.33 | $150 | +$5.67 | 50% 431-435 (866) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 53.6¢ | $136.96 | $145.85 | +$8.89 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $140.73 | $117.34 | -$23.39 | 34% 410-780 (1190) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.1¢ | $51.73 | $117.34 | +$65.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.2¢ | $89 | — | -$89 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $196.25 | $109.52 | -$86.74 | 59% 518-358 (876) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.4¢ | $77.06 | $109.52 | +$32.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70¢ | $119.2 | — | -$119.2 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 51¢ | $89.08 | $174.72 | +$85.64 | 51% 413-399 (812) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 87.2¢ | $93.33 | $107.07 | +$13.74 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $86.47 | — | -$86.47 | 50% 421-413 (834) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 35.4¢ | $55.23 | $156.13 | +$100.9 | 74% 846-295 (1141) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 72¢ | $114.21 | $84.82 | -$29.39 | 58% 502-365 (867) |
Invested
$8,623
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$36.29
Record
57%
73-56 (129)
Invested
$2,196.78
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$305.22
Record
60%
549-373 (922)
Invested
$524.74
Value
$564.77
PnL
+$40.04
Record
41%
370-540 (910)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$606.2
Value
—
PnL
-$500.95
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$379.52
Value
$405.11
PnL
+$27.5
Record
26%
423-1174 (1597)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$361.93
Value
—
PnL
-$361.93
Record
41%
599-859 (1458)
Invested
$378.07
Value
—
PnL
-$378.07
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$206.95
Value
$314.15
PnL
+$107.21
Record
42%
396-555 (951)
Invested
$153.65
Value
$307.55
PnL
+$153.9
Record
44%
358-458 (816)
Invested
$194.89
Value
$217.81
PnL
+$22.93
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$230.41
Value
$210.35
PnL
-$20.07
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$164.64
Value
$191.22
PnL
+$26.58
Record
60%
513-340 (853)
Invested
$185.75
Value
—
PnL
-$185.75
Record
50%
404-408 (812)
Invested
$101.12
Value
$157.5
PnL
+$74.82
Record
52%
506-465 (971)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
—
Invested
$144.33
Value
$150
PnL
+$5.67
Record
50%
431-435 (866)
Invested
$136.96
Value
$145.85
PnL
+$8.89
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$140.73
Value
$117.34
PnL
-$23.39
Record
34%
410-780 (1190)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.25
Value
$109.52
PnL
-$86.74
Record
59%
518-358 (876)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.08
Value
$174.72
PnL
+$85.64
Record
51%
413-399 (812)
Invested
$93.33
Value
$107.07
PnL
+$13.74
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Invested
$86.47
Value
—
PnL
-$86.47
Record
50%
421-413 (834)
BoneOhioInvested
$55.23
Value
$156.13
PnL
+$100.9
Record
74%
846-295 (1141)
Invested
$114.21
Value
$84.82
PnL
-$29.39
Record
58%
502-365 (867)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.8K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $564.77
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $405.11
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $314.15
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Down — $307.55