Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

21 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$137.95

Smart Money Signal

21 of 36 top traders (58%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,138

Combined PnL+$403.17

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,253

Combined PnL-$265.21

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$8.8K	$7.6K	-$33.07	57% 73-56 (129)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.6K	+$4.0K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$23.01	99% 448-2 (450)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 37.9¢	$711.02	$403.82	-$307.2	60% 549-373 (922)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$451.89	—	-$451.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$259.13	$403.82	+$144.69
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$539.43	$418.47	-$120.96	41% 370-540 (910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$279.23	—	-$279.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$260.2	$418.47	+$158.27
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$528.6	$493.75	+$11.27	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$248.56	$493.75	+$250.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$232.39	—	-$239.52
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$262.12	$315.5	+$53.38	46% 534-630 (1164)
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.5¢	$44.47	—	-$44.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$217.65	$315.5	+$97.85
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$243.37	$315	+$71.63	41% 599-859 (1458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.7¢	$68.42	—	-$68.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$174.95	$315	+$140.05
BL blue.birds	Upavg 78.4¢	$600.23	$383.72	-$188.58	52% 3844-3594 (7438)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$493.72	$438	-$55.72	50% 404-408 (812)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.5¢	$383.17	$438	+$54.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$110.55	—	-$110.55
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$329.95	$344.81	+$14.86	44% 358-458 (816)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$241.26	$344.81	+$103.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.9¢	$88.69	—	-$88.69
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$363.09	$381.42	+$18.33	15% 170-951 (1121)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$224.13	$381.42	+$157.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$138.95	—	-$138.95
BO bosona	Upavg 53.4¢	$284.94	$533.85	+$248.91	50% 3912-3912 (7824)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$221.8	$167.94	-$53.86	42% 396-555 (951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.8¢	$108.87	—	-$108.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$112.93	$167.94	+$55.01
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$214.79	$236.08	+$21.29	47% 799-905 (1704)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.4¢	$161.55	$236.08	+$74.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.3¢	$53.24	—	-$53.24
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 71.6¢	$193.12	$160.63	-$32.49	54% 3796-3185 (6981)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$78.08	—	-$78.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.6¢	$115.03	$160.63	+$45.6
82 0x828b...a12b	Upavg 50¢	$180	$180	+$0	49% 201-206 (407)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$166.87	$160	-$6.87	53% 4160-3620 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$61.37	—	-$61.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$105.5	$160	+$54.5
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.4¢	$140.81	$167.55	+$51.11	52% 506-465 (971)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 31.2¢	$130.28	$66.05	-$64.23	51% 418-407 (825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.2¢	$80.23	—	-$80.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$50.05	$66.05	+$16
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$112.85	$96.15	-$16.69	50% 431-435 (866)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.7¢	$28.95	—	-$28.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.2¢	$83.89	$96.15	+$12.26
97 0x976d...8b63ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$150	$150	+$3.15	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$75.75	$150	+$74.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$60.07	—	-$71.1
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$143.43	$170.43	+$27	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$112.83	$170.43	+$57.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$30.6	—	-$30.6
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 57.9¢	$93.21	$127.81	+$36.28	46% 1064-1272 (2336)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$131.05	$131.23	+$0.18	34% 410-780 (1190)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$90.75	$131.23	+$40.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$40.3	—	-$40.3

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,783.42

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$33.07

Record

57%

73-56 (129)

Both legs:

Down$3,899.749.9¢$-4.0K

Up$3,810.5850¢+$4.0K

THG.

Invested

$2,277.89

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$23.01

Record

99%

448-2 (450)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$711.02

Value

$403.82

PnL

-$307.2

Record

60%

549-373 (922)

Both legs:

Down$451.8937.9¢-$451.89

Up$259.1364.2¢+$144.69

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$539.43

Value

$418.47

PnL

-$120.96

Record

41%

370-540 (910)

Both legs:

Down$279.2331.7¢-$279.23

Up$260.262.2¢+$158.27

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$528.6

Value

$493.75

PnL

+$11.27

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Up$248.5650.3¢+$250.79

Down$232.3947.1¢-$239.52

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$262.12

Value

$315.5

PnL

+$53.38

Record

46%

534-630 (1164)

Both legs:

Down$44.478.5¢-$44.47

Up$217.6569¢+$97.85

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$243.37

Value

$315

PnL

+$71.63

Record

41%

599-859 (1458)

Both legs:

Down$68.4214.7¢-$68.42

Up$174.9555.5¢+$140.05

blue.birds

Invested

$600.23

Value

$383.72

PnL

-$188.58

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Invested

$493.72

Value

$438

PnL

-$55.72

Record

50%

404-408 (812)

Both legs:

Up$383.1787.5¢+$54.83

Down$110.5544¢-$110.55

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$329.95

Value

$344.81

PnL

+$14.86

Record

44%

358-458 (816)

Both legs:

Up$241.2670¢+$103.55

Down$88.6925.9¢-$88.69

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$363.09

Value

$381.42

PnL

+$18.33

Record

15%

170-951 (1121)

Both legs:

Up$224.1358.8¢+$157.29

Down$138.9549.9¢-$138.95

bosona

Invested

$284.94

Value

$533.85

PnL

+$248.91

Record

50%

3912-3912 (7824)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$221.8

Value

$167.94

PnL

-$53.86

Record

42%

396-555 (951)

Both legs:

Down$108.8731.8¢-$108.87

Up$112.9367.2¢+$55.01

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$214.79

Value

$236.08

PnL

+$21.29

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

Both legs:

Up$161.5568.4¢+$74.53

Down$53.2422.3¢-$53.24

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$193.12

Value

$160.63

PnL

-$32.49

Record

54%

3796-3185 (6981)

Both legs:

Down$78.0828.6¢-$78.08

Up$115.0371.6¢+$45.6

0x828b...a12b

Invested

$180

Value

$180

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

201-206 (407)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$166.87

Value

$160

PnL

-$6.87

Record

53%

4160-3620 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$61.3734.5¢-$61.37

Up$105.565.9¢+$54.5

wzbbb

Invested

$140.81

Value

$167.55

PnL

+$51.11

Record

52%

506-465 (971)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.28

Value

$66.05

PnL

-$64.23

Record

51%

418-407 (825)

Both legs:

Down$80.2331.2¢-$80.23

Up$50.0575.8¢+$16

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$112.85

Value

$96.15

PnL

-$16.69

Record

50%

431-435 (866)

Both legs:

Down$28.9514.7¢-$28.95

Up$83.8987.2¢+$12.26

0x976d...8b63ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$3.15

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$75.7550.5¢+$74.25

Down$60.0749.5¢-$71.1

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$143.43

Value

$170.43

PnL

+$27

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

Both legs:

Up$112.8366.2¢+$57.6

Down$30.630.8¢-$30.6

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$93.21

Value

$127.81

PnL

+$36.28

Record

46%

1064-1272 (2336)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$131.05

Value

$131.23

PnL

+$0.18

Record

34%

410-780 (1190)

Both legs:

Up$90.7569.2¢+$40.48

Down$40.344.8¢-$40.3

Smart Money Signal

21 of 36 top traders (58%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9fb27c49...f32bdc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794455100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$33.07

THG.

Up — $2.3K

+$23.01

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$307.2

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$120.96

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $383.72

-$188.58

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$55.72

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