Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Up 50%
5 arb excluded
$10.5K
$-10.3K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 54 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.2K | 56% 72-56 (128) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 84.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$59.6 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 44¢ | $737.77 | $989.57 | +$251.8 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
AL almach | Upavg 91.9¢ | $1.3K | $911.11 | -$162.44 | 47% 668-756 (1424) |
BO bosona | Upavg 93.1¢ | $1.2K | $894.82 | -$177.88 | 50% 3891-3897 (7788) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $509.57 | $660.63 | +$151.06 | — |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 90.3¢ | $616.96 | $575 | -$41.96 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81¢ | $525.42 | $519.94 | -$5.48 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $647.05 | $495.65 | +$31.52 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 91.1¢ | $639.81 | $494.37 | -$145.44 | 46% 669-781 (1450) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 65.8¢ | $415.64 | $434 | +$18.36 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 48.7¢ | $482.07 | — | -$482.07 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 74.9¢ | $393.85 | $322.49 | -$71.21 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 64.7¢ | $337.27 | — | -$337.27 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 47.5¢ | $292.56 | — | -$292.56 | 48% 998-1097 (2095) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 32.5¢ | $156.73 | $276.74 | +$120.01 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 39¢ | $364.93 | — | -$364.93 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 39.2¢ | $189.46 | $222.81 | +$33.35 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.7¢ | $88.51 | $222.81 | +$134.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.2¢ | $100.95 | — | -$100.95 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 42.9¢ | $182.68 | $224.56 | +$85.39 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $127 | $98.08 | -$28.92 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $81.11 | — | -$81.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.8¢ | $45.88 | $98.08 | +$52.2 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 80¢ | $146.85 | $147.07 | +$0.21 | — |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $128.29 | $142 | +$13.77 | — |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 36¢ | $48.56 | $134.72 | +$86.17 | 53% 4150-3615 (7765) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Downavg 39.5¢ | $435.13 | — | -$66.64 | — |
Invested
$8,786
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$1,650.22
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$59.6
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$737.77
Value
$989.57
PnL
+$251.8
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
Invested
$1,262.43
Value
$911.11
PnL
-$162.44
Record
47%
668-756 (1424)
Invested
$1,202.65
Value
$894.82
PnL
-$177.88
Record
50%
3891-3897 (7788)
Invested
$509.57
Value
$660.63
PnL
+$151.06
Record
—
Invested
$616.96
Value
$575
PnL
-$41.96
Record
—
Invested
$525.42
Value
$519.94
PnL
-$5.48
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$647.05
Value
$495.65
PnL
+$31.52
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$639.81
Value
$494.37
PnL
-$145.44
Record
46%
669-781 (1450)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$415.64
Value
$434
PnL
+$18.36
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
Invested
$482.07
Value
—
PnL
-$482.07
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$393.85
Value
$322.49
PnL
-$71.21
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$337.27
Value
—
PnL
-$337.27
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
Invested
$292.56
Value
—
PnL
-$292.56
Record
48%
998-1097 (2095)
Invested
$156.73
Value
$276.74
PnL
+$120.01
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$364.93
Value
—
PnL
-$364.93
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Invested
$189.46
Value
$222.81
PnL
+$33.35
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$182.68
Value
$224.56
PnL
+$85.39
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Invested
$127
Value
$98.08
PnL
-$28.92
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$146.85
Value
$147.07
PnL
+$0.21
Record
—
Invested
$128.29
Value
$142
PnL
+$13.77
Record
—
FairValueMachineInvested
$48.56
Value
$134.72
PnL
+$86.17
Record
53%
4150-3615 (7765)
Invested
$435.13
Value
—
PnL
-$66.64
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.6K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $989.57
almach
Up — $911.11
bosona
Up — $894.82
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Up — $660.63
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Up — $575
CrouchPredictions
Up — $519.94
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $495.65