Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$14.0K
$-7.9K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 56 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.0K | 56% 72-56 (128) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 100% 96-0 (96) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$8.99 | 74% 773-277 (1050) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 94.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$127.56 | 48% 998-1097 (2095) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.5¢ | $527.94 | $573.64 | +$45.7 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $574.84 | $485.05 | -$6.38 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.2¢ | $348.06 | $454.57 | +$106.51 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 68.2¢ | $343.15 | $362.7 | +$21.15 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.5¢ | $281.9 | $339.42 | +$57.52 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $187.89 | $294.07 | +$106.18 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 62.6¢ | $199.46 | $318.82 | +$119.36 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.5¢ | $227.84 | $242.43 | +$14.59 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.6¢ | $307.67 | $180 | +$7.02 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $120.55 | $153.1 | +$32.55 | — |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.3¢ | $140.31 | $147.61 | +$34.3 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 53.6¢ | $117.79 | $135.33 | +$17.54 | 44% 1012-1265 (2277) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $110.47 | $128.12 | +$17.65 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 75.9¢ | $136.92 | $180.49 | +$43.57 | 46% 669-781 (1450) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $187.89 | $101.19 | +$13.28 | 26% 419-1163 (1582) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 83.7¢ | $101.62 | $99.04 | -$2.58 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 62.4¢ | $80.1 | $120 | +$39.9 | 53% 4150-3615 (7765) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $138 | $84.5 | -$53.5 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82¢ | $69.29 | $84.5 | +$15.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.1¢ | $68.71 | — | -$68.71 | |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $141.43 | $87.68 | +$18.85 | 35% 179-332 (511) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $69.85 | $84.5 | +$14.66 | 51% 407-391 (798) |
Invested
$8,961
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
100%
96-0 (96)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,008.99
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$8.99
Record
74%
773-277 (1050)
Invested
$2,061.68
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$127.56
Record
48%
998-1097 (2095)
Invested
$527.94
Value
$573.64
PnL
+$45.7
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$574.84
Value
$485.05
PnL
-$6.38
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$348.06
Value
$454.57
PnL
+$106.51
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$343.15
Value
$362.7
PnL
+$21.15
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
Invested
$281.9
Value
$339.42
PnL
+$57.52
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$187.89
Value
$294.07
PnL
+$106.18
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
machinelearnedInvested
$199.46
Value
$318.82
PnL
+$119.36
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Invested
$227.84
Value
$242.43
PnL
+$14.59
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$307.67
Value
$180
PnL
+$7.02
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
Invested
$120.55
Value
$153.1
PnL
+$32.55
Record
—
Invested
$140.31
Value
$147.61
PnL
+$34.3
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$117.79
Value
$135.33
PnL
+$17.54
Record
44%
1012-1265 (2277)
Invested
$110.47
Value
$128.12
PnL
+$17.65
Record
—
Invested
$136.92
Value
$180.49
PnL
+$43.57
Record
46%
669-781 (1450)
Invested
$187.89
Value
$101.19
PnL
+$13.28
Record
26%
419-1163 (1582)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$101.62
Value
$99.04
PnL
-$2.58
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
FairValueMachineInvested
$80.1
Value
$120
PnL
+$39.9
Record
53%
4150-3615 (7765)
Invested
$138
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$53.5
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$141.43
Value
$87.68
PnL
+$18.85
Record
35%
179-332 (511)
Invested
$69.85
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$14.66
Record
51%
407-391 (798)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $573.64
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $485.05
Bonereaper
Down — $454.57
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $362.7
stepahead
Down — $339.42